Weekend Weather: Saturday Starts With Spotty Showers Then Turns Soggy

October 11, 2023

Wednesday Night Update

There is a lot of interest in the weather this weekend with a focus on outdoor sporting events Saturday morning and a huge festival in the mountains. I wanted to shed some light for fellow athletes that may help you plan what to wear and expect.

I will be with close to 5,000 cyclists in the Seagull Century on the 100-mile course between Salisbury University and Assateague Island that starts around sunrise. In Baltimore, there will be roughly 11,000 at the running festival, while Northern Carroll County will be hosting the final River Valley Run. Horses will be racing in the Maryland Million at Laurel later in the morning.

Adding to the mix, Garrett County hosts Autumn Glory in Oakland at 1 PM. The largest fall festival and I was honored to be the Grand Marshall a few years ago.

I know there are other events I am missing, and a few weddings I have been asked about as well.  I have a closer look below, but in short, it looks like this: Rain reaches the mountains early. The rest of the events may start dry or with spotty showers in the morning, but it will get wetter with steadier and heavier rain in the afternoon through the night.

Wednesday Night Surface Weather

If I may suggest, this may be a frequent setup this winter. There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico staying to our south. This is common with an El Niño. We get some and miss others like this.

But lining up out of the Rockies will be the next storm we will get this weekend.

Computer Model Simulation

Thursday Morning To Sunday Morning

I am playing this longer loop to show how the Southern Storm will track off the coast, and we can watch the next system push our way and develop overhead on Saturday.

Rain will get steadier and heavier in the afternoon and evening. Showers will linger on Sunday, especially in the morning.

Saturday Developing Storm

The rain will be ramping up during the day and into the evening.

Closer Look:

5 AM Saturday to 2 PM Sunday

Snapshots

8 AM Saturday

The Running Festival and Seagull Century will be underway by this time. There may be hope for some dry hours early. However, the rain will be advancing to the north and south, and closing in.

Other Models

NAM

This model shows steady rain in western Maryland and entering southern Maryland… But possibly a few hours dry in central Maryland.

ECMWF

This may be another test for this European Model that is on its own.. and it has been falling short lately. So I don’t buy it staying this dry.

Temperatures

It will be chilly to start with temps in the 50s and they won’t move much.

11 AM

It is hard to pinpoint specifics this early, but there is a chance the rain will hold off a little longer around Baltimore. But I would plan for a few showers at any time.

2 PM

Rain will be expanding across the entire region. It will be steady and possibly heavy sooner to the north and south.

5 PM

Everyone will turn wet. It may actually be soggy and heavy at times.

8 PM

Rain will last through the night.

Looking Ahead: Cold Pattern

This may be a trend into winter. Following this storm, the jet stream will try to dig in a deep trough and close off an upper-level low over the Eastern US.

Jet Stream Friday Afternoon to Tuesday Afternoon

Following this storm, there is a very pronounced cold pattern set to settle in the Eastern US.

Tuesday Afternoon

A potent upper-level Low and Deep Trough will have another grip across the Eastern US.  This may bring us high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal. That could translate to lower 50s in central Maryland and the first frost for many inland.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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