August 26, 2023
Saturday Update
The heat yesterday peaked at 94ºF in Baltimore. A cold front brought showers and T-storms, but they were scattered and not all saw them.
The good news is that the expected rain this morning has not materialized! Another signal that the short term modeling is flawed. Also, the front that moved through has pushed south and lost some energy. It will bring a focus of showers by the beaches this afternoon.
Cooler weather is on the way Sunday into most of next week. We will watch Franklin become a major hurricane and send high waves to the beaches, and then a new tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and may make landfall in Florida. If we get rain from that is still up for question later in the week.
One cold front is moving through, but we still have warm and humid conditions. The risk for rain will be shifting south and focused near the beaches.
The next cold front is the game changer and will arrive with cooler winds on Sunday.
There will be a cluster of showers near the beaches.
It will remain warm and humid.
Sunrise at 6:30 AM
Sunset at 7:47 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 65F
Record 52ºF in 1874
Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF
Record 101ºF 1948
Cooler winds will hold our temperatures down in the 70s and lower 80s. We should remain dry, but more clouds and a sprinkle can not be ruled out in the evening.
Notice the light flow from the northeast.
Here we see Franklin show up on the edge of the map as it moves north and becomes a hurricane.
It will curve away from the US and be close to Bermuda. The next cold front will stall along the eastern US on Monday. There will be a period of rain while waiting for Franklin to pass by.
TS Franklin is expected to become a Category 2 Hurricane and pass west of Bermuda. This will be far off the US east coast, but still produce swells and waves up to 6 Ft in Ocean City, MD pic.twitter.com/JMADUWIbNS
— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) August 25, 2023
This product shows the new Gulf storm holding stronger and making a turn south into the Atlantic and then stalling well off the coast. This scenario keeps the rain away from our region.
Located in the Atlantic, winds are up to 65 mph and it will make a turn more north and strengthen into a major hurricane It is forecast to miss the United States early next week, but send high waves to the East Coast. It will be closer to Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 105 miles from the center.
We can see the influence of wind shear FROM the west blowing the top of the clouds away from the center. This is what is limiting growth for now. That is expected to diminish as this turns north, allowing it to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend.
Cooler winds arrive Sunday as the chance of showers increases early next week.
The impact of TS Franklin will bring high waves to the beaches. Then we watch the new tropical system in the Gulf that may (or may not) bring us rain by the end of the week.
I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
