Weekend Weather And Tropical Outlook August 25

Friday, August 25

Before getting into this report I want to state the obvious again: The computer model guidance has been poor. So when we look at radar simulations, it is a suggestion, not a promise. This morning’s rain was an example of this and how some areas continue to miss out when we get regional showers. It does not always rain for everyone when the forecast shows rain! Today we have a 60% chance meaning BOTH the odds you get wet, AND a portion of our region will get something.

The most common questions I have received today were the potential for showers this evening, rain Saturday, and any impact on the tropics. I will attempt to touch on all of them here.

Friday Afternoon Surface Weather

Today was the day we were supposed to have our taste of true hot weather. But each update showed the Heat Dome getting suppressed.

We have a cold front nearby that could ignite some showers and storms. The energy was taken out with the morning showers (even if you missed them) and now what is left is split.

Live Radar Widget

Compare to the forecast simulation below.

Use the controls to zoom/pan the map, and play the animation.

HRRR Model 4 PM to 10 PM

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible through this evening.

Saturday Weather

This slow-moving front will take all day tomorrow to cross the region. Here is the suggestion for showers in the morning around central Maryland, taking until mid-afternoon to reach the beaches.

If you have plans, I would not cancel them for a few hours of rain. Just prepare for the potential and additional clouds surrounding it.

Radar Simulation

6 AM to 4 PM

Snapshots

8 AM

Metro Baltimore may wake up to some morning rain, then clearing from the north.

Noon

Lingering showers may still be passing Baltimore and across Rt 50/Bay Bridge.

4 PM

This is the more likely time the showers will reach the beaches.

Sunday:

We should see more sun and cooler temps.

Tropical Outlook

7 Days According To The National Hurricane Center

During the next week, Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to pass west of Bermuda as a Category 2 Hurricane. See the track and wave forecast below.

There is a system in the Western Caribbean with a 70% chance of developing as it enters the Gulf of Mexico near Florida. This could affect our weather with rain later next week.

Tropical Storm Franklin

As of Friday afternoon, it is still disorganized with winds of 50 mph. A turn to the north should get it free of wind shear and allow it to strengthen into a hurricane this weekend.

The closest pass to us will be Tuesday morning.

Wave Forecast Animation

TS Franklin is expected to become a Category 2 Hurricane and pass west of Bermuda. This will be far off the US east coast, but still produce swells and waves up to 6 Ft in Ocean City, MD pic.twitter.com/JMADUWIbNS

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) August 25, 2023

GFS Model Forecast

8 AM Mon Aug 28 to 8 AM Fri Sep 1

Snapshot Tuesday

Snapshot Wednesday

Snapshot Friday

If we get rain from that tropical system we could be looking at next Friday.

It is TOO EARLY to make any promises.

7 Day Forecast

We miss the main heat dome and get back to cooler weather by the end of the weekend.

While Franklin passes west of Bermuda as a Hurricane, it will miss the US. It will also stall a weather system over the Eastern US that will bring us rain on Monday.

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

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I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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