Thursday Afternoon, August 17, 2023
In this El Niño year, there has been an expectation for higher tropical activity in the Pacific Ocean. The formation of Hurricane Hilary off the west coast of Mexico is fairly routine. The forecast and track, however, are out of the ordinary. It is a large storm in size, and after just forming, winds are already up to 105 mph Thursday afternoon.
Ideal conditions will allow rapid development to a Major Hurricane Category 3 intensity (over 111 mph winds). This may happen today. Growing to Category 4 or even 5 is a definite possibility! While it will eventually run into cooler water and weaken, Hilary should remain a tropical system when it reaches the Southwest US.
The larger-scale weather pattern that has provided a record Heat Dome in the United States this summer is part of the steering currents, expecting to bring this storm center into Southern California by Monday morning. This means as soon as this weekend, heavy flood waters are expected throughout the Desert Southwest.
Note: Some of the areas to be affected received record snow last winter AND record heat this summer. Often extremes breed extremes over the same locations.
The colder colors are brighter and represent higher cloud cover.
The perception of an eye already with a tight spiral around the center is a strong suggestion of a healthy storm rapidly developing.
LOCATION…15.8N 108.4W
ABOUT 500 MI…805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES
Snapshot Monday Morning
The large Heat Dome in the central US will help to steer Hilary into Southern California and continue North!
Saturday Morning to Tuesday Morning
Of the 19 models in production, here:
National Hurricane Center Forecast Map
(Compare to model maps below)
Note that this track turns Hilary almost due north and skirts just off the Baja California of Mexico.
RAINFALL:
Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across portions of southern California and southern Nevada.
This is the National Blend of Models. While this is showing a broad 2 to 4+ inches of rainfall, local expectations are up to 8 inches. This can lead to extreme Flash Flooding across the mountains and desert valleys.
Thursday Evening to Monday Morning
Sunday Morning to Monday Night
Use the controls to scroll through the timeline or zoom in closer.
I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
