July 16 Flood Watch Today Then Wildfire Smoke Returns Monday

July 16, 2023

Sunday Update

We are still dealing with a humid air mass and weak frontal boundary. There are flood watches in place across our region today, but there is some explaining to do.  After this passes, we need to shift our focus back to the wildfire smoke that is expected to return Monday.

Flood Watches

The morning rain will be more focused east of the Bay. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch until 4 PM for Delmarva.

The OTHER Flood Watch is until 8 PM WEST of the Bay. This may be accounting for evening thunderstorms. More on that below.

Morning Surface Weather

Today’s rain will be directed on where this weak front is located. It is slowly moving east, and will help to ignite more showers and storms. See the forecast radar below.

Under normal conditions we would get into clearing after the front passes. This time (and summer) there is a wind shift to bring in another plume of wildfire smoke our way tomorrow.

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation 8 AM to 8 PM

SUGGESTION: I DO NOT TRUST the short-range modeling.

The idea here is for morning rain to redevelop and shift across the Bay through Delmarva.

Then we will watch for a line of thunderstorms to try and organize and move into central Maryland this evening.

Radar Snapshot: Noon

The band of rain will be more active and heavier farther east.

Afternoon Temperatures

Radar Snapshot This Evening

A line of thunderstorms may organize and enter central Maryland between 7 PM and 9 PM.

SMOKE RETURNS

Behind the cold front, the winds will allow the lastest plum of wildfire smoke to reach the Mid-Atlantic into Monday.

Animation Sunday Evening To Monday Night

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY July 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  68ºF

Record 57ºF in 1954

Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF

Record 104ºF 1988

Monday Weather

Morning Temperatures

Some break from the heat, however, there will be the smoke to consider.

Smoke Snapshot: Monday Afternoon

The peak of the smoke forecast will be on Monday. When combined with higher temperatures than last time we may see more air quality alerts issued.

Afternoon Temperatures

7 Day Forecast

The smoke in this round will be accompanied by higher temperatures than the last round we had. However, it looks like it may be a shorter-duration event. I can only focus on the short-term, so check back for the extended smoke outlook.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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