Tropical Depression Three Expected To Become First Atlantic Hurricane This Year

Monday, June 19, 2023

Today is almost three weeks into the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season and two days away from the start of summer. To date, we have had one named storm, but this week we are likely to make that two.

Tropical Storm Arlene was named June 1 and only lasted a few days with a top wind speed of 40 mph. This new storm is in a healthy environment with warm water and upper-level winds that could bring it to hurricane intensity as it enters the Caribbean.

This new storm has winds of 35 mph. When it organizes better and has sustained winds of 40 mph or higher, it will be named Bret.

Tropical Depression Three Satellite

This wide view helps show the perspective that this is way out in the eastern Atlantic. There is a lot of real estate to cover before reaching any islands. However, this also shows that there is another wave behind it and what seems to be a third wave near the African coast. It may get busy in a hurry!

Wide Satellite Loop

Official Status Report: 11 AM Advisory

LOCATION…11.0N 40.3W

ABOUT 1425 MI…2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

No Warnings In Effect at this time.

Closer Storm Satellite Loop

National Hurricane Center Update:

The center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On the forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser Antilles late this week.

Forecast Maps

This plot shows the likely southern track to take it into the Caribbean as a Category 1 Hurricane. That would mean winds over 74 mph.

Forecast Model Guidance

The collection of model forecast plots all point to a southward track then skirting the southern edge of the eastern Caribbean islands. This is subject to change, and I will be watching for any model bias to show up this week.

Forecast Model Intensity

There is a 62% chance based on these model plots, for this to each Hurricane Intensity quickly. Perhaps as soon as Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

National Hurricane Center Official Forecast Map

Also See: 

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

2023 Hurricane Names

Note: On January 16, there was an unnamed Tropical Depression identified by The National Hurricane Center. It did not get a name but will be included in the overall tropical records. It was located about 300 miles from Bermuda.

I will have a more detailed article on the history of names soon.

Names are in alphabetical order.

• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Don
• Emily
• Franklin
• Gert
• Harold
• Idalia
• Jose
• Katia
• Lee
• Margot
• Nigel
• Ophelia
• Phillipe
• Rina
• Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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