El Niño Advisory Declared By NOAA On June 8

June 8 2023

Today NOAA, The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration declared an El Niño Advisory. This is an upgrade from the Watch previously in place and does not come as a surprise after our 3 years or Triple Dip La Niña.

Warming water in the tropical Pacific Ocean has been expected and has been factored into other long-range forecasts for the tropical season in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. The conditions are expected to grow stronger through the upcoming winter of 2023 to 2024.

NOAA Report

In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C.

Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive, reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

Influence Around The Globe

In the Pacific Ocean, warmer water leads to more storms and hurricanes.

Those storms increase the upper-level winds FROM THE WEST.

In the Atlantic Ocean, those upper-level winds sheer the tops of high clouds, limiting tropical storm development.

Video: More On El Niño

For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia.

Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions.

The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2023-24.

Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24.

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Also See: 

Smoke Forecast June 8: Worst Day For Mid Atlantic

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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