May 13, 2023
Saturday Afternoon Update
The most appropriate description for today’s weather event is overachiever. One person commented on my morning forecast asking if this was really going to be a rainy day since the prior systems only dropped a few hundredths of an inch.
It appears the switch was flipped and this turned out to be more potent.. Especially across southern Pennsylvania. This is where the rain was supposed to end earlier. As of 3 PM, the radar loop showed a distinct flow of heavier rain continuing.
The latest high resolution radar simulation still shows the rain ending in metro Baltimore this evening. If you are planning on going to the Orioles game, it may be damp to start, but improving as the rain will be tapering off in central Maryland some time between 6 PM and 8 PM. I am leaning closer to the later part to be on the safe side. Let’s take a look.
Radar Loop Recap
Noon to 3 PM
Temperatures at 3 PM
The modeling didn’t handle this well as rain has kept temps in check.
Yesterday it did look like a day in the 60s. This morning there was a warmer boost expected, but obviously that did not happen. I should have stayed with the original forecast.
This HRRR Model is NOT perfect, but gives an idea of the movement shifting south. There will be embedded heavier bands of rain, and even thunder to the south.
It does appear even this update may be underselling the rain. It has been heavier than suggested here. However, I am more focused on the timing of the back edge to move through…
The rain line should be moving south of the PA line… gradually.
Metro Baltimore and Orioles fans may see spotty showers. However, it should end in the city close to or up to 8 PM. Some heavier thunderstorms are still possible across Southern Maryland.
Rain will continue on Delmarva with a few thunderstorms still possible.
After a dry Mother’s Day, we will watch for the next system to bring us rain on Tuesday.
Today’s rain will be out of here for a dry Mother’s Day. The next rain chances will be on Tuesday and Friday. Otherwise we should have a quiet week ahead.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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