May 13, 2023
Saturday Morning Update
Rain has already moved into parts of our region before sunrise. This has outperformed model expectations in southern Pennsylvania this morning, so it is safe to extrapolate and plan for more rain in Maryland today as this drops south.
If you have plans for the Taylor Swift Concert in Philadelphia OR the Baltimore Orioles night game, the timeline below does suggest it will be OK. My hesitation has been with rain events moving in and then out faster than projected. If that holds true again today, then our evening will dry out.
Mother’s Day is looking good, and then only one or two days next week with rain.
The rain we have expanding from the Northwest is a bit of a squeeze play. Low Pressure is not organized near us, but the upper level winds are helping to carry the moisture in faster, ahead of the cold front dropping south from New York state.
This is why we expect the rain to expand as it drops south and enhance with some thunderstorms later today in Southern Maryland.
Compare this to the forecast animations below.
Notice the expanding rain as this drops south. Also the embedded storms cells (yellow/orange) across Southern Maryland.
Mid Day the rain should be overspreading most of our region.
At this point it looks like the rain will remain for most of Maryland through the afternoon. It will be tapering off to the north in Southern PA.
The HRRR Model is still showing rain showers in metro areas, and heavy across Southern Maryland, (dry in Philadelphia).
However, this product has a tendency to be too slow to move the rain out.
This product is showing the faster solution, which is more in line with my thinking. So the Orioles game in Baltimore should be OK.
There has been a wide range of forecast numbers, all dependent on the rainfall event and when it may dry out. I would plan for a cool feel with temps ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 52ºF
Record 36ºF in 2020
Normal High in Baltimore: 75ºF
Record 95ºF 1881
Note: On this day in 1881, the LOW TEMPERATURE was 79ºF making for the hottest daily min for the month and a true early summer feel on that record day.
After a dry Mother’s Day, we will watch for the next system to bring us rain on Tuesday.
Today’s rain will be out of here for a dry Mother’s Day. The next rain chances will be on Tuesday and Friday. Otherwise we should have a quiet week ahead.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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