Wednesday Night March 8 2023
I have removed my doubt of this storm, but remain skeptical of the impact for our region. The set up on the weather map is not ideal, but perhaps close enough to get a cyclone that may try to Bomb Out along the coast on Saturday.
In fact the energy in the atmosphere is set up to produce two storms within a few days. The first arrives Friday ending Saturday, the second may race in Sunday night into Monday.
GFS Model Friday morning to Monday Morning
Since the GFS performed best with the PA snow this week, it is getting more air time.
I have two model slider timelines below.
Given our rare low snow winter and late season date, I hope you understand my sincere caution with the words I choose for this storm. It is why I want to show you the set up for what to best expect with snow and or rain. However, I resist showing any snowfall potential given the obvious obstacles we face. I will restate them along with my First Call Map below.
If you missed my prior report, I showed many photos of late season snow stickage on the Eastern Shore in Maryland. It is possible in March and even April, so I still encourage an open mind for some surprises.
WIDE VIEW MAP
I chose to vantage point to highlight a few things:
Jet Stream Friday Morning To Saturday Evening
Watch the rapid development of that trough and Cold Core Low forming as it reaches the coast. On Saturday this is expected to rapidly intensify!
The Upper Low is expected to be near Philadelphia and Atlantic City. This is north of Baltimore, so not ideal for a Mid Atlantic snow. However, the energy I plotted is tracking into southern Maryland. This will help pull in colder air and the backside of snow as the storm moves away. It will also help this storm Bomb Out off the coast.
This may be a little faster (it was slower the past few days). It also shows a stronger coastal Low and a bigger impact on the back end with snow Saturday morning.
Both the NAM 3 Km and Canadian GEM show the leading edge midday. That would restrict any snow impact for most of our region starting so late.
The Canadian was the farthest NORTH and warmest, but it is back in line with the other models.
This is my best simplified expectations. I will NOT suggest snow amounts yet.
It is favorable for inland areas AWAY from the Chesapeake Bay and in the higher hills. This does not favor urban, coastal, or Delmarva locations. However, that Coastal formation and timing in the morning could bring them snow before sunrise to have the best chance to lay a coating.
Most likely I will take any model suggestions for snow totals and LOWER THEM to account for melting AND the tendency to push north at the very end.
If you want snow, you want the track farther south than shown here. If this ends up north, it would diminish snow chances.
My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.
I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
