February 23 Aiming For Record Warmth Today Then Light Snow Saturday

February 23, 2023

Thursday Morning

Today is the best representation of this winter. I mean with a major winter storm to our north where snow is being measured in FEET, and we are on the warm side. At this point it seems fitting to go for a warm record that is 149 years old! We will surge into the upper 70s, and some local areas could reach 80ºF.

This is only a ONE DAY THING!  Temps will tank tonight and back to the chill tomorrow. Then there is that little system with light snow or flurries on Saturday.  It is very practical to question any chance for stickage.

Morning Temperatures

If your kids want to wear shorts, keep in mind it is chilly this morning. The warm air will surge in by noon and beyond.

However, check out Salisbury, already in the 60s.

The warm air is already moving into the mountains…. That is where it will come from for most of us.

Morning Surface Weather

The major winter storm to our north is still raging and might be affecting travel. Up to 2 Feet of snow was expected for Minneapolis, one of their top 10 storms. Ice across lower Michigan, then more snow and ice through New York Sate and New England.

Locally: We shift the wind and PUMP IN NEAR RECORD HEAT!

Wind Forecast

After an early shower and clouds break, the wind will increase from the West to Southwest. It will average 10 to 20 mph. With this direction, it may allow shoreline areas in Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties to get in on the warmth and limit cooling from the Bay. However, the Eastern Shore coastline will be cooler with the wind off the water.

Temperatures

It was 78ºF in 1874 on Feb 23. 149 years ago!

I still believe we have a good chance to match it!

I am showing the two warmest model plots simply because the others are having trouble adjusting to the rare set up today. We often end up with a warmer reading at BWI than models show in these set ups.

There will be some local thermometers that reach 80ºF.

Note:

This will NOT be the warmest February day for our region. The top spot was 83ºF in Baltimore on February 25 in 1930.

GFS Model Forecast

Canadian GEM Model

I usually reserve showing this for arctic set ups and wintry weather, but this is the WARMEST plot of the model package.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 23

Normal Low in Baltimore:  28ºF

Record 5ºF in 1963

SNOW: 6.1” in 1987

Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF

Record 78ºF 1874 <– This is the mark we may match or beat today.

Friday Weather

Windy and Colder!  Temps will be falling overnight, then hold nearly steady during the day.

Temperatures

Midnight

This may be the warmest part of the day.

Morning

It will noticeably colder when you head out the door.

Wind Forecast: 7 AM to 7 PM

Mid Day Winds

The Northwest flow will average 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.

Afternoon

A bit of a reality check with temps holding in the upper 40s to near 50ºF.

Saturday Snow?

I get it, this is crazy! So let’s take this for what it is. This is more about just seeing it fall, rather than anything adding up on the ground.

I see the jet streak trying to produce a band of light snow or flurries. IF THIS HAPPENS it will be mid-day, and AFTER this warm day, so do not expect much to stick, let alone affect travel.

Compare the European and GFS Models. Both focus on southern Maryland. I expect these will shift back north like almost all other events this winter.

European ECMWF

GFS Model

7 Day Forecast

A WILD SWING from heat today to some snow Saturday, then we settle back to where we were in the mild 50s.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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