January 30, 2023
Monday Night Update
The sport of winter weather forecasting is truly underway, and the uncertainty this week is fitting for this lame winter. By lame, I am referring to a day like today when Baltimore’s BWI reached 59ºF, while other parts of Maryland and metro Washington DC reached the 60s. For context, the record high on this day was 72ºF set way back in 1914. We have had warmer days long ago. In fact that year of 1914 was followed by a February with 11.4 inches of snow, and March with 11.6 inches of snow. That was higher than the long-range average for each month. There is still plenty of winter in front of us. Keep that Faith in the Flakes.
In my last few posts, I have purposely reiterated a few things. First, my high confidence in the arctic air on the way. The coldest will arrive this weekend, and after reading reports of this air mass in other parts of the country, I am buying into this trending colder.
The other thing I have mentioned a few times was asking you to keep an open mind about the snow potential. I could have easily given up when the main models lost the event, but I sensed something was wrong. I’ve seen an error like this many times and was simply anticipating that once again, it might be the case. That is why I showed models like the Canadian GEM and NAM 12 Km to contrast.
The reason I have questioned the computer model guidance is because very strong arctic boundaries that dive south into Texas tend to move slowly to the east coast. By that time they often don’t reach as far south as expected.
In this case, the closer that front remains, the better chance we have to catch one or two waves of energy that can produce snow.
The latest high-resolution modeling has shown something interesting I want to share with you. I refuse to show snow totals as we must account for the warm ground. If anything does have an impact, it would be the second impulse early Wednesday morning.
The cold front is NOT the leading edge of the arctic air or even the freezing air. That is farther back in the air mass, about 100 miles behind the front.
I do want to highlight the two current impulses ‘behind’ the front. One in central New York with snow, the other an ice storm that stretched north of Dallas to south of St Louis. It’s that setup (precipitation in the cold air behind the front) that could repeat in our region tomorrow night.
Radar Simulation Midnight to 11 AM
The HRRR model actually has this as a minor event. The light snow or mix north maybe just rain around and south of Baltimore.
Light snow or sleet may fall around the Pennsylvania and Maryland border.
After this passes, temps will drop and hold steady. That movement of the Freezing line will appear to stall all afternoon.
This is a stronger impulse with a little more moisture. It will be acting on colder air as well. While temps will be marginal with freezing as it falls, temps will drop behind it. If the ground is still warm to prevent stickage, there is a possibility a wet ground can ice up before sunrise.
This may be moving beyond southern Maryland by sunrise.
Radar Simulation
Temperatures
This does show light snow in southern Maryland, but misses metro Baltimore
This still keeps the frontal boundary too far south missing all of us.
This looks like Christmas weekend all over again. After the ‘stretched Polar Vortex’ influence this weekend, next week will warm up. There is going to be more cold air to follow and I would not jump on specifics about how cold (or not) it will be now. I just wanted to show you the drop and bounce over the next two weeks of forecast data.
FITF – Faith in the Flakes
Today Is 3rd Latest
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click here for the full report
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
