12 PM Wednesday January 4 2023

I am baffled by the morning short-range model update for the rain and possible thunderstorms today.  The remnant energy from the active cold front and storm complex that produced severe weather is crossing to the coast today.

It had supported a line of rain and even promoted the potential rumbles of thunder with its passage this afternoon. 

That is still possible, but the product of the latest model update is surprising.  I truly do not know if it got bad data or is on to a more accurate solution. I will study the results to improve my understanding of the computer guidance benefits and flaws for future events.  In this case, I am just a spectator and taking you on the ride. So let’s look.

Below is a brief comparison and the Live Doppler Radar Widget to keep tracking through the afternoon. 

Snapshot:

Doppler Radar at 11 AM

This showed a cluster of heavy rain from central North Carolina to south-central Virginia.

Model Plots for 11 AM

Model: NAM 3 Km

Made at 1 AM

This depicted a strong storm line, but farther west than verified. It supported my notion of being slow and west, about 1 to 2 hours behind schedule. 

Model: NAM 3 Km

Made at 7AM

This LOST the storm intensity, but did a better job with the location.  

Why is this important?

If the newer model is correct, then most of our region in Maryland will get a less potent line of rain.  But if this is already underplaying the intensity, it is very possibly missing out on the energy available. 

Mid Day Storm Set Up

The question for me is about the storm line ahead of the cold front extending through the Southeast US.  Will some of that energy expand into Maryland, or remain confined to the south of us?  That is the conundrum for us this afternoon.

Storm Animation Comparisons

Model: NAM 3 Km

NOON to 7 PM

Made at 1 AM

Model: NAM 3 Km

NOON to 7 PM

Made at 7 AM

Snapshot Comparison 

The older model shows a robust line of heavy rain and some thunderstorms reaching the Chesapeake Bay.  The new Model is faster, but only has an isolated singular storm cell moving up the Chesapeake Bay separated from the main line.

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

If you are curious or not near a window, this will give you a way to track and plot how this behaves. 

Also See:

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