November 16 Pattern Change From Mild Weekend To First Local Mountain Snow Next Week
November 16, 2024 Saturday Morning Report We are due for a change, and it will show up in the next seven days. After the warmest and driest Fall on record…
January 3 Warm Rain Showers And Slushy Snow Saturday
Maryland Weather
climate data
Severe Weather
Winter Weather
Forecast
January 3, 2023
Tuesday Morning Report
One year ago today, we had our largest snow of the winter season with a record 6.8 inches falling at Baltimore’s BWI. Today, we are in the middle of a stretch of 60-degree days. The large weather system is pumping in warmer air today and midday showers. Tomorrow there will be another round, pushed into the afternoon and evening. They may produce some thunder.
It now appears more likely that some slushy snow will try to build in this weekend, but this is NOT the big pattern change.
Climate Notes:
January 3, 2022 produced a record snow for Baltimore with 6.8 inches. It was the biggest event of the season for the city area.
Headlines
- Warm with Midday Rain – More North
- Wednesday may bring a T’shower
- Slushy Snow Saturday?
Morning Temperatures
Surface Weather
A large storm is producing snow across Nebraska and severe storms in the South. The Severe Storm Risk for tornadoes across the Gulf Coast is moderate!
We get another warm day in the Mid Atlantic with rain spreading in between 10 AM and 2 PM.
3 PM Temperatures
Radar Simulation
Rain showers expand across our region between 10 AM and 2 PM.
Snapshot: 11 AM
Rain showers reach the western and northern suburbs. More likely between Frederick, Westminster, to York and Lancaster in PA.
Showers may reach parts of the Baltimore beltway.
Snapshot 1 PM
Showers may expand across central Maryland including Baltimore and Annapolis.
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CLIMATE DATA
TODAY January 3
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 0ºF in 1879
SNOW: 6.8” 2022
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 68ºF 2000
Polar Vortex Report
In case you missed this, I explain the stable circulation now and disruption forecast by mid January. Compare to 3 recent winters that were similar: Record warmth was followed by record snow.
Wednesday
Morning
Remaining mild in the mid 50s.
Afternoon
Another warm afternoon, with showers and some storms.
Radar Simulation: 12 PM to 9 PM Wednesday
Showers may have some rumbles of thunder. We we still see more rain or at least steadier rain north of Baltimore.
Storm Animation: 10 AM FRI to 10 PM SAT
This next impulse will try to produce rain and snow on Saturday… However the temperatures will be marginal.
Snapshot 10 PM Saturday
It has looked like the atmosphere was going to try to produce something but the timing has been tough to pin down. I would expect this time frame to remain a moving target. Temps will be more likely to stay above freezing in metro areas, but stickage has a better chance inland.
My Thoughts:
Winter Weather Folklore:
If in winter there is thunder, it may snow in one week or under.
This may play out during this week and is more common than you might imagine. Big warmth, followed by winter fighting back. We will keep tracking as it has looked like the atmosphere was going to try something.
7 Day Forecast
Warm start to the week, then ending closer to average. This is not an arctic outbreak, so the snow chance this weekend may be slushy… Meaning in higher elevations it could stick, but near metro areas it may snow and melt on the ground.
Faith in the Flakes Gear
What is Faith in the Flakes?
It began with my son in 2009
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
SNOWSTIX – Available Now
STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Also See The Winter Outlook Series:
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Farmer’s Almanac Comparison
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
Triple Dip La Niña Winter
CONNECTION TO WINTER?
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Wooly Bear Caterpillars
Persimmon Seeds
Click to see Top 20 and MORE
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History
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