December 23

Friday Evening Update

After all the talk of the Bomb Cyclone and rapidly falling temps, the focus was on the end as snow and possible flash freeze.  While some of that freeze happened, it was minimal. The wind did meet and exceed expectations. Trees have fallen in many areas, and the result was closed roads and power outages. It is with profound sadness that I share the news it turned deadly in Frederick County.

I also will address when the winds will ease, the very cold weather for the Ravens game, Christmas morning, and perhaps some light snow early next week. I’ll explain. 

Friday Evening Surface Weather

That Bomb Cyclone has bottomed out at 967 mb. That is actually equivalent to the pressure of a Category 2 Hurricane. So, no wonder it has been a wind machine.  

Much of our area is under a Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM Saturday. A Wind Chill Warning in western Maryland until 1 PM Saturday.

The good news is that the winds will ease a bit tomorrow, but the coldest air will be settling in to counter the frigid feel.

Arctic Air has pushed all the way to the Gulf Coast and Florida!

Conditions at 9 PM

I know there were doubters, but it really did get this cold! We have more to go overnight.

Temperatures 

Yes, that is an actual temperature of -11ºF in McHenry, with Baltimore at +11ºF.

Wind Chill

McHenry wind chill was -38ºF validating the forecast, while the Baltimore area ranges from -5ºF to -10ºF.

Lake Effect Snow

Buffalo, NY is in for another epic event! This one may produce another 3 to 4 FEET! Check out the Blizzard and Zero Visibility conditions they posted today:

So what does “zero mile” visibility look like? Well, here’s a spectacular view of our parking lot near the airport. Yes, there are cars parked just a few feet away.

We don’t even want to be parked in it, you *definitely* don’t want to be driving in it. Seriously. https://t.co/ikpMJTnoU7 pic.twitter.com/px5jmVFLIe

— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) December 23, 2022

Local Max Wind Gusts 

This is a map of the top wind gusts from area reporting stations around the region. Below is a list with even higher numbers across Maryland. 

• 69 mph was the highest in Garrett County (mountains).
• 62 mph at BWI in Baltimore at 12:43 PM
• 64 mph was the highest along the coast in Bethany Beach, DE.
• 45 mph to 58 mph was the average across much of the region. 

Westminster MD Wind Damage

This photo taken by Long & Foster shows part of a shopping center brick wall that collapsed onto a car. The top wind was nearby at 55 mph.

Deadly Result In Frederick County 

A man was killed while driving on Rt 77 west of Thurmont. See that story in the Frederick News-Post.

Top Wind Gust List (From NWS Sterling VA Spotters)

Weather Forecast Details BELOW THE LIST

…District of Columbia…

  Washington 1 WSW         53  1003 AM 12/23  Trained Spotter

  GWU Mount Vernon Cam     49  1240 PM 12/23  MESOWEST

MARYLAND

…Allegany County...

•   Md-135 At Salt Dome      56   924 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   I-68 Eb At Street Ro     52   745 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   I-68 At Savage Mt        51   935 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Md-51 At Oldtown Sal     50  1139 AM 12/23  MESOWEST

…Anne Arundel County…

•   BWI Marshall Airport     62  1243 PM 12/23  ASOS
•   Sandy Point              60  1038 AM 12/23  WXFLOW
•   I-97 At Md-100           55  1229 PM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Glen Burnie              49   116 PM 12/23  CWOP
•   Fort Meade               47  1138 AM 12/23  AWOS
•   Annapolis Naval          47  1213 PM 12/23  ASOS
•   Herring Bay              46  1110 AM 12/23  WXFLOW

BAY BRIDGE

•   Bay Bridge S-9 E B       69  1119 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Bay Ridge 1 NNE          69   112 PM 12/23  NDBC
•   Wpl Pier 31              62  1118 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Bay Bridge N-13 W B      56  1139 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Greenbury Point          49  1219 PM 12/23  WXFLOW
•   Tolly Point              48  1114 AM 12/23  WXFLOW
•   ; MD                     48  1132 AM 12/23  WXFLOW
•   Bay Ridge 2 SSE          46  1100 AM 12/23  NDBC

…ANZ533…

  Cove Point LNG Pier;     51   924 AM 12/23  NOS-PORTS

…ANZ537…

  Hull Neck 5 NNE          67  1248 PM 12/23  NDBC

  Piney Point; MD          50   924 AM 12/23  NOS-PORTS

  Cobb Point               48   850 AM 12/23  WXFLOW

…ANZ538…

  Dundalk 3 SSW            54  1236 PM 12/23  NDBC

  Francis Scott Key Br     53   124 PM 12/23  NOS-PORTS

…ANZ541…

  Blackwalnut Harbor       50  1245 PM 12/23  WXFLOW

…ANZ542…

  Solomons Island; MD      48  1112 AM 12/23  NOS-NWLON

…ANZ543…

  Bishops Head; MD         51  1212 PM 12/23  NOS-NWLON

  Crisfield                49  1212 PM 12/23  WXFLOW

  Lower Hooper Island      47   109 PM 12/23  WXFLOW

…Baltimore County…

•   Owings Mills             58  1045 AM 12/23  CWOP
•   Md-43 At Md-150          51  1259 PM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Baltimore Martin         49  1057 AM 12/23  AWOS
•   Baltimore/Lansdowne      49  1200 PM 12/23  CWOP
•   Perry Hall               48  1153 AM 12/23  CWOP
•   I-70 At I-695            46  1229 PM 12/23  MESOWEST

…Carroll County…

•   Hampstead                55  1238 PM 12/23  CWOP
•   Md-30 At Pa Line         50  1050 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Westminster 2 N          48   935 AM 12/23  AWOS
•   Sykesville               48  1225 PM 12/23  CWOP
•   Md-140 At Md-97          46  1241 PM 12/23  MESOWEST

...Charles County…

•   Cuckold Creek            46  1211 PM 12/23  WXFLOW

…Frederick County…

•   Wolfsville 1 S           58  1150 AM 12/23  Trained Spotter
•   Ballenger Creek 2 NE     57   100 PM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Us-340 At Md-180         56   934 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Astrazeneca              53   930 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Sabillasville 3 SSW      52   909 AM 12/23  AWOS
•   Thurmont                 49  1105 AM 12/23  CWOP
•   Us-15 At Md-140          46   950 AM 12/23  MESOWEST

…Garrett County…

•   I-68 At Us 219           63   748 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   I-68 at WV Line          50   724 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Garrett County Airpo     48  1255 PM 12/23  AWOS

…Harford County…

•   Jarrettsville            49  1050 AM 12/23  CWOP

…Howard County…

•   Us-29 @ Middle Patux     48  1030 AM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Elkridge                 48  1214 PM 12/23  CWOP

…Montgomery County…

•   Montgomery Co Airprk     52  1034 AM 12/23  AWOS
•   Cabin John               50  1257 PM 12/23  CWOP
•   I-270 At Md-109          46  1235 PM 12/23  MESOWEST

…Prince Georges County…

•   Andrews AFB              51  1225 PM 12/23  AWOS
•   Laurel                   48   100 PM 12/23  CWOP

…St. Marys County…

•   Point Lookout            55   929 AM 12/23  WXFLOW
•   Patuxent River NAS       49  1201 PM 12/23  AWOS

…Washington County…

•   Md-64 At Md-418          51  1249 PM 12/23  MESOWEST
•   Hagerstown Rgnl Arpt     49   904 AM 12/23  ASOS
•   Hagerstown               48  1145 AM 12/23  CWOP
•   I-70 At Fred-Wash Co     46   944 AM 12/23  MESOWEST

Wind Forecast Animation 

8 PM Friday to 8 PM Sunday 

You may not be able read the numbers, but I am sure the colors help show the easing of the winds Saturday afternoon and evening. 

Saturday Weather

Morning Temperatures 

These are actual expected readings on area thermometers.

Morning Wind Chill

Winds will still be gusty and a factor to be painful!

Afternoon (1PM Ravens Game Time)

It’s going to be a VERY COLD GAME

Temperatures 

I believe it may be a little higher than this forecast, but even if the lower 20s are reached, it won’t feel much better. 

Wind Chill

It will be painful to be outside for a few hours for sure, but the wind will be less intense. It will not take much to knock it down to the single digits or colder.

Christmas Sunday

Morning Temperatures 

Nearly the same readings as the Saturday afternoon. The improvement is NOT GETTING COLDER.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Warming into the 20s for most central areas. 

Can We Get Any Snow From This?

Well, I believe often in these arctic patterns little clippers get missed by the models, but bring us something before the warm up. I am also of the mindset that if the model don’t do much with this now, it may actually have a better chance. I’m not cynical!

Jet Stream Vorticity

Monday Morning 

Watching this ‘spin’ aloft at around 18,000 Ft aloft we can see energy help boost small systems to form.  I’ve highlighted the Vort Max and possible Clipper (fast moving small system).

Animation: Monday Morning to Tuesday Evening 

We can see the energy race quickly to the east coast.

Snapshot Tuesday Morning

The initial Vort Max swings through and off the coast, with a noticeable trough in the Jet Stream to pivot through behind it.

GFS Model Animation

Here we see a ‘hint’ of light snow Monday night to Tuesday Morning. 

I am not promising much, but at least flurries or snow showers have been in my 7 Day forecast for a few runs because of this wave.  It’s the only thing I see for the next 10 days.

I’ll be back with a full forecast in my morning weather report on Saturday. See you then.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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