December 17 2022

Saturday Morning Update 

The white elephant in the room is the big storm before Christmas. We are now less than one week away and it is realistic to get into more detail, which I will below. However, I want to start with our colder winds today and the flurries I have been mentioning.

Early Morning Radar Loop

3:45 AM to 5:30 AM

Watch a few showers try to cross the mountains, but fade farther east. There is like to be more support today and tomorrow.

Morning Temperatures

Most areas are above freezing and the ground (like) Thursday is still holding a little heat. I don’t see an ice concern locally. The mountains west of Cumberland are still a winter wonderland. 

Headlines

• Weekend: Cold winds, maybe a Flurry
• Western Maryland (and nearby ski resorts): Snow Showers
• Next Week: Chilly and Dry
• Just Before Christmas: Possible Major Storm AND Arctic Outbreak

Morning Surface Weather

As the storm departs New England and a large Upper Level Low brings the core of the cold air over the Great Lakes, we will get colder winds. The result will be snow showers in the mountains. East of the mountains, occasional clouds and maybe a flurry.

Wind Forecast

A colder push of air will increase in the afternoon. 

Upper Level Energy

A few Vort Maxes will rotate through around the Upper Level Low. That is why I believe occasional clouds and passing flurries are possible.

Afternoon Temperatures 

 Start of the colder air.

Wind Chill

It will feel up to 10 degrees colder

Radar Simulation

4 PM SAT to 7 AM SUN

Upslope snow will continue in Garrett County and the high mountains. This does not do a good job showing flurries, but a hint can be seen near central areas.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 17

Normal Low in Baltimore:  29ºF

Record 5ºF in 1951

SNOW: 11.5” 1932

Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF

Record 68ºF 1984

Sunday Temperatures 

Morning

Colder air on the move. How cold we get will depend on the winds and cloud cover. If it clears out by you and winds settle down, then it could get colder than this.

Afternoon 

A chance even Baltimore remains in the 30s.

Looking Ahead To The BIG STORM (2-Days)

THURDAY

There is a BIG DIFFERENCE Between the GFS and European ECMWF Models!

The GFS (right) is colder with a coastal Low and Snow. The European (left) is warmer for us with mostly rain and snow confined to the mountains. 

WHY SO DIFFERENT? Jet Stream!

(if you are revisiting this article I corrected the date on the storm map)

The GFS Model has a deeper Trough, pushing the energy for the Low to our south.  This is in part thanks to a STRONGER PNA (energy from the Pacific).

The European ECMWF has the core Low in that cold air, closed off with the energy underneath it.  This is in part thanks to a weaker PNA, thus the surface energy results in a ‘cutter’ inland. That is what brings in warmer air to the big cities.

Storm Animations

GFS Model

This is the Colder Coastal Storm Solution… Showing a snow storm and additional energy carrying Thursday into Friday. 

ECMWF Model

This is the Warmer solution with the Core Low Closed in the Great Lakes.

This shows Thursday with rain, ending with snow inland. With the inland orbit of the Upper Low, we get ‘dry slotted’, and a dry but colder Friday.

Friday Snapshot

We see the atmosphere likely to produce a storm, but HOW THE ENERGY COMES TOGETHER is very different. The uncertainty is because this has not even begun to form yet.  

STILL TOO EARLY

I thought this Tweet was very appropriate yesterday. The storm has not even formed yet and the main energy is still very far away.

Adding a little perspective to those Southeast snowstorm posts you’re seeing on your timeline right now… pic.twitter.com/awTRiEvZqf

— Evan Fisher (@EFisherWX) December 16, 2022

I will have a more detailed look in my next report this afternoon.

Below the 7-day forecast, I will show you how even one model can DRAMATICALLY SHIFT in a single day!

7 Day Forecast

This week is more about the cold wind, but some ambient flurries are possible. Snow will affect travel west of Cumberland. 

Remaining cold next week. Winter Solstice is Wednesday!

Thursday and Friday remain a WILD CARD. I took a blend of models, but likely the High Temp would be at midnight and drop during the day.

I would not endorse anyone locking in on a promise now. Definitely do not consider a promise for totals. Just consider a possible impact on Thursday to Friday for travel. 

LONG RANGE MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Compare GFS Model temperatures through New Year’s Day

The big difference is based off the shift of Greenland Blocking and The Polar Vortex.  The location would determine remaining cold or surging warmth.  I think that ‘warmth’ is a glitch.

From Friday Morning

From Friday Evening 

I will have a more detailed look at the storm in my afternoon report. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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