December 15 2022

Thursday Morning at 5 AM

The weather event has begun early. Following the ‘good’ part I have been advertising, what we will see should be in place.  That means both icy and just wet areas. The hard part is pinning down exactly where what is.  That is why we are relegated to ‘nowcasting’ as it is the BEST approach. I will do my best to try and update hourly to track that icing line. 

Most likely there will be ice to scrape off your car if you are in the colder zones.  The roads are marginal with wet and icy spots.

The main caution I want to share this morning is that if you travel, the conditions may be different around the corner or on your route. This means that within a degree or two of freezing, the ground could be icy in just spots or more widespread.

Treated roads should mostly be wet. It will be inland side roads, sidewalks, and elevated surfaces like stairs, decks, and overpasses that can be icy.

First Look Suggestion:

Before you head outside, turn on a light and look at a fence or tree. Got icicles? Is it shiny and icy? Do you see icicles?  If so, these elevated surfaces would be the first to freeze, and give you a suggestion but not a promise for the ground.  The grass, sidewalk, and pavement could be just at or slightly above that temperature. It really is hit miss and you are best to see what is happening by you.

Morning Conditions

Surface Weather Map

The complication in this approaching Low from the south is the cold air in place (wedge) and the stronger east wind bringing in warmer air. Baltimore has had that wind between 5 and 15 mph. That is why temps in the city are just above freezing, with rain south and the icing more inland. See the temperatures below .

Schools:

The decision to have a delay and then reevaluate was the best call. Many schools will have their follow-up between 6 AM and 7 AM, so what is developing now is what we will continue to see for a few hours.

Temperatures And Radar (Estimate) At 5 AM

Maryland (and region) – Close look at regional maps below.

This began with a brief period of sleet and snow, but now is mostly rain. The icy spots are where temps are just below 32ºF.

Northeastern Maryland

Harford and Cecil Counties – Temps are within 1 degree above or below freezing. It really can change on a short drive, so be careful!

North Central Maryland

Wet in the city and by the Bay, but icy inland. Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful.

Baltimore County

Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful.

Baltimore City

Wet in the city and closer to the water.

Carroll County 

Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful.

Southern Pennsylvania

Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful.

Frederick To Hagerstown

Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful. There have been some isolated pockets of warmer air. This is interesting, where higher elevations can thaw sooner, but valleys will hold the cold and ice longer.

Howard and Montgomery Counties

Many roads are wet, but there are icy spots that will be hard to determine until you are on it. Please be careful.

Mostly rain near and east of I-95. Anne Arundel County I gave you a 50% chance, but it looks like the other 50% took over and it’s just wet for you.

Radar Simulation

NAM 3 Km 6 AM to 10 PM

Most of our region should thaw to just rain between 9 AM and Noon, with some icy stuff lingering in southern PA a few extra hours.

Heavy rain will come to an end tonight as the storm moves away quickly. Some showers may return Friday morning.

New Weather Display

I have working with my friend and graphic artist Casey Berry on new ways to help show snow forecasts for travelers. They are not all ready yet, however I felt I need to grab the first two and apply them to this event for people who travel these routes.  I’d love to know if you find them helpful and I will have more during the winter ahead.

This applies to general conditions in those areas that are not treated or less traveled side roads/side walks. Interstates will be heavily worked with chemicals but could still get icy.

Traveling WEST on I-70 and or I-68

Between Baltimore and Western Maryland

Traveling Northwest on MD 140 (Reisterstown Road)

From Baltimore to Frederick County

Latest Warning and Advisory Map

Please see my Local Notes explaining the areas below, followed by forecast maps.

Marginal Icing

Advisory Until 1 PM But likely to be canceled earlier

This is where parts of the county may be close to freezing for the starting hours.

• Price George’s
• Anne Arundel
• Queen Anne’s
• Cecil
• Kent (only unit 9 AM)
• Up to Wilmington and Philadelphia (until Noon)

Ice Through The Morning Commute

Advisory Until 1 PM: May start to thaw between 8 AM and 10 AM

• Washington DC
• Montgomery
• Howard
• Baltimore City/County (south) around the Beltway
• Harford County

Moderate Icing Up to 0.25”

Advisory Until 4 PM

These areas may also mix in more sleet and may even have a burst of snow.

Thawing more likely close to or after Noon

This ice can break branches, weigh down power lines, and take longer to thaw.

• Washington
• Frederick
• Carroll
• Northern Baltimore/Hereford Zone

Advisory Until 7 PM

• Southern PA from Chambersburg to Gettysburg. Hannover, Shrewsbury, York, and Lancaster.

Heavy Icing Over 0.5” possible

Advisory Until 10 PM

• Garrett and Allegheny Counties in Maryland, plus the nearby skyline drive region of Virginia.

Ice and Moderate Snow

Warning Until Friday Morning

• Central PA including Altoona, State College, and The Poconos.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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