November 15 2022

Late Tuesday Morning Update

As the first taste of winter weather approaches, I wanted to share a few radar options to see which performs best here on the site. The initial precipitation appears to be arriving earlier than models had forecast. That has been the trend we’ve seen for a few months.

It is important with winter weather to consider Virga, the snow, sleet, or rain sublimating/evaporating on the way down. So it may show falling from the clouds on radar, but not reach the surface. If and when that happens, it also serves to cool the air and support a drop in temps along with more frozen precipitation when it does actually reach the ground.

This first animation I recorded, so it will not update. Below the third radar is a look at the morning forecast maps. I will have an update this afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory

Reminder that I expect snow and sleet to fall (not stick) EAST of the Advisory Counties.

Doppler Radar Snapshot at 11:15 AM

The leading edge may not reach the ground, but the next few hours will fill in and perhaps start with sleet or snow-flakes in the zone highlighted.  Even if it begins with high rain, this region may turn to sleet and snow during the afternoon and early evening.

Doppler Radar: Winter Mode

3 Hour Loop Ending 11:15 AM

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Doppler Radar Loops

Radar Loop Past 2 Hours

This has a glitch we are working to fix..

Showing LAST 2 HOURS Radar map data

LAST 2 HOURS

RAINVIEWER: Interactive

This is a new element I am testing that does show winter mode. However, I believe the leading edge is Virga, so not all reaching the ground.

 Windy Radar: Interactive

Does NOT show winter mode, so rain, sleet, and snow not identified.

GFS Model Forecast

3 Hour Increments 1 PM Tue to 7 AM Wed

Winter Precipitation Explanation

Click Here:

See more about rain vs. sleet vs. snow

Computer Model Forecast/Comparisons

4 PM

• Snow or sleet develops quickly between 1 and 4 PM.
• This is shown to include Frederick, Carroll, and NW Baltimore Counties in Maryland.
• Also into York and Harrisburg in PA.

Temperatures

Expect a drop in temperatures with the start of the precipitation. The wintry mix areas will be in the 30s, with the freezing line close to Hagerstown and westward.

7 PM

• Burst of Snow and sleet in those Northwest suburbs may last for a few hours….
• Heavier snow with stickage more likely along Rt 15 and I-81.

Temperatures

The freezing line may get closer to Westminster and York.

Other Models

Canadian GEM

European ECMWF

Rest Of The Night (GFS)

Turning to rain with slightly warmer air moving in from the south.

10 PM

1 AM Wednesday

4 AM Wednesday

GFS Model Snow?

This is the high end of potential within reason

I do not trust the 2 to 5 inches between Westminster and York. This is assuming all stickage and does not account for melting.  But I needed to share with you just in case there is a surprise burst this evening.

National Weather Service Snow Forecasts

Maryland/Virginia 

Pennsylvania 

Rain/Precipitation Total

Wednesday Morning

Wednesday Afternoon

7 Day Forecast

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

September Starts Meteorological Autumn: Weather Climate Stats For Maryland at Baltimore

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Rainbow Ice Cave In Mt. Rainier A Very Rare Find: Photos And Video

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now