November 15 2022
Late Tuesday Morning Update
As the first taste of winter weather approaches, I wanted to share a few radar options to see which performs best here on the site. The initial precipitation appears to be arriving earlier than models had forecast. That has been the trend we’ve seen for a few months.
It is important with winter weather to consider Virga, the snow, sleet, or rain sublimating/evaporating on the way down. So it may show falling from the clouds on radar, but not reach the surface. If and when that happens, it also serves to cool the air and support a drop in temps along with more frozen precipitation when it does actually reach the ground.
This first animation I recorded, so it will not update. Below the third radar is a look at the morning forecast maps. I will have an update this afternoon.
Reminder that I expect snow and sleet to fall (not stick) EAST of the Advisory Counties.
The leading edge may not reach the ground, but the next few hours will fill in and perhaps start with sleet or snow-flakes in the zone highlighted. Even if it begins with high rain, this region may turn to sleet and snow during the afternoon and early evening.
This has a glitch we are working to fix..
This is a new element I am testing that does show winter mode. However, I believe the leading edge is Virga, so not all reaching the ground.
Does NOT show winter mode, so rain, sleet, and snow not identified.
3 Hour Increments 1 PM Tue to 7 AM Wed
Click Here:
See more about rain vs. sleet vs. snow
Expect a drop in temperatures with the start of the precipitation. The wintry mix areas will be in the 30s, with the freezing line close to Hagerstown and westward.
The freezing line may get closer to Westminster and York.
Turning to rain with slightly warmer air moving in from the south.
GFS Model Snow?
This is the high end of potential within reason
I do not trust the 2 to 5 inches between Westminster and York. This is assuming all stickage and does not account for melting. But I needed to share with you just in case there is a surprise burst this evening.
National Weather Service Snow Forecasts
Maryland/Virginia
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
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Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
