November 14 2022
Monday Evening Update
The first taste of winter shows up in two separate weather alerts for Tuesday. What I want to highlight again in this post is that I believe there will be more areas that might see their first flakes or sleet pellets not shown on this map. I do have more maps that help support that for more of Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania.
Freeze Warning: Delmarva will give it another try after not getting to 32ºF Monday morning.
Winter Weather Advisory: Some stickage may affect travel on I-68, I-70 west of Breezewood, and I-81.
I have colored in a section left of the light blue line where I believe a period of snow or sleet may fall, which I’ll explain below.
This is the HRRR Model, which is the coldest outlook for low temps. Here I’ve highlighted the areas in the Freeze Warning that might get to 32ºF.
Let’s Back Up To The Weather System
November 15 Chilly Rain With Burst Of Snow And Sleet Inland Beyond The Winter Weather Advisory
Low Pressure is identified near Memphis, with a Cold Front reaching Oklahoma City bringing in really cold air and snow. The race for these two is on as this complex develops and heads towards Maryland on Tuesday afternoon.
This has constantly been showing the snow and icy mix just inland from Baltimore. It has been trending colder and closer…
It will bring in warmer air overnight, then race out of here by Wednesday as it heads toward New England.
I would expect precipitation to begin in central Maryland between 1 PM and 4 PM. It may start with light rain or sleet, then the wintry precipitation will expand inland 4 PM to 7 PM. Then, warming later in the night.
Heavier snow will fall in the mountains, followed by Lake Effect Snow on Wednesday in and around Garrett County.
Most of the region will be above freezing, but chilly. That freezing line may get into parts of York County in PA to Frederick County in Maryland.
850mb level is roughly around 5,000 Ft above the ground and a key level for cloud temps. Here we see the freezing line supporting frozen precipitation near Frederick, Westminster, Shrewsbury, and Lancaster.
All of them do show some snow or sleet falling farther east than the Advisory area. This suggests falling but not necessarily sticking.
I’ve highlighted some key towns, and we can see that snow potential exists for Frederick, Westminster, Hereford, through to York PA.
This continues to show snow and or sleet falling in the NW suburbs of Baltimore to the PA line near the Hereford Zone and around the York region.
This is very close to the GFS plot, with more icy mix shown in that peach color.
This is actually the colder plot now, showing a chance for snow even into parts of Baltimore.
Explain Winter Weather Precipitation: Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain
This is where it gets tricky. These models tend to oversell the snowfall and don’t necessarily account for melting on warmer ground. I am showing you the raw snow total plots which dramatically disagree with the official National Weather Service numbers (even on their high end).
No comment on the models. This is simply for fun (or posterity). If they are closer to being correct I will be sure to give the proper credit and account for future events.
Most practical and closer to the NWS forecasts.
Same general region, but higher snow burst zone.
This is colder and shows accumulation farther east. I would take this one with a grain of salt.
This will be a potent little system and may burst a band close to 1 inch of rain around the Chesapeake Bay.
Keeping trough of cold air for the eastern US.
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Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
