November 13 2022
Sunday Night Update
The cold air mass that arrived today brought coating of snow to the high mountains of West Virginia, western Maryland, and Pennsylvania. The next event may drop some flakes a little farther east and maybe into nearby suburbs.
Before I explain why I am suggesting this, I need to add a few disclaimers:
Yes, I love snow and have been leading Faith in the Flakes with my son for over a decade. I am NOT the only one. I posted a ‘Poll’ on Facebook Sunday evening, and got a huge response. Here is the way it looked after just 3 hours. I think there is overwhelming support for the change of season.
No, I do not believe this will be a travel problem locally. Perhaps if you are traveling along or west of I-81, we may have to discuss stickage. I’ll get into that in my next reports.
No, I do not let wishful thinking into my formal forecasting. What I will show you below is the scientific reason I believe there may very well be snow or sleet mixing in for the inland suburbs of Baltimore late Tuesday.
To add to this, we will look at the temperatures at cloud level that may be cold enough , even if surface temps are too warm. So this is for what may fall, NOT what can stick (lay and stay).
This shortwave will bring a band of precipitation to the Northeast, with a cluster of snow (blue) and sleet or slushy mix (pink), then ending as rain. This will be as warmer air follows the initial impact.
The initial precipitation will reach the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia as rain or sleet.
The ‘stuff’ should begin in central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania during the afternoon. I say stuff since there may be sleet or snow mixing in west and north of Baltimore
The 850mb level is what we use for cloud level temperatures that can support frozen precipitation. This is measured in Celsius. That 0ºC line in white and gray shading may slice through central Maryland for a few hours.
As the precipitation gets heavier, evaporative cooling and dragging down of colder air can support a wider area of snow and sleet.
In Maryland this may include parts of Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore Counties. In Pennsylvania this may include Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.
(Ground temps are likely to remain above freezing so no stickage nearby).
The freezing line gets pushed up close to the Maryland/Pennsylvania border.
That freezing line moves farther north, so any mixing will turn to a chilly rain.
This model is pretty aggressive along with the GFS to bring in that wintry mix for the northern suburbs of Baltimore.
This is now suggesting a hint of pockets with snow or mix in the same inland zones.
A digging trough will establish for the eastern US, so high temps will remain about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
I will follow this with more detail in my Monday afternoon report.
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Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
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