November 11 2022

Friday Morning Update 

Today is our date with Nicole. In my home we get the additional honor of celebrating Veteran’s Day with my younger son’s birthday.  He has been raised to honor and appreciate your service!

This is going to be wet and possibly stormy.  The rain will come in waves, but some cells have the chance to turn severe… especially farther south.

The winds with this storm will pump in warm air through tonight, then followed by very chilly air to end the weekend.

Looking farther ahead, a new storm next week may look like a winter set up with snow not too far away inland. 

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

Today AND TONIGHT!

This highlights the chance for thunderstorms to turn severe. That would bring damaging winds over 58 mph and or isolated tornadoes. The chance for thunder and gusty winds will cover a wider area, including much of Maryland.

Morning Surface Weather

Tropical Depression Nicole has winds of 35 mph, but it covers a large area. As rain spreads north, the heaviest is expected to fall across Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio where 2 to 4 inches is expected, but they may have local spots up to 8 inches. 

Here in the Mid Atlantic we expect 1 to 3 inches of rain.

The cold front is helping to steer and speed this up. It will be followed by much colder air and gusty winds.

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

Controls for panning, zooming, and looping the rain.

Forecast Animation – HRRR Model 

7 AM FRI to 7 PM FRI

(See the second part below) 

Bands of rain may have heavier cells, but there will also be a few lulls. There should be a break for metro areas this evening. 

Temperatures 

Afternoon 

Warmer air will be pushed in ahead of the storm. 

Tonight 

Temps may reach the daily high right before midnight. 

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 11

Normal Low in Baltimore:  38ºF

Record 21ºF in 2017

SNOW: 6″ in 1987 – VETERAN’S DAY STORM

Normal High in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 77ºF 2006

Average Temperatures Trending Cooler

Forecast Animation – NAM 3 Km Model 

10 PM FRI to 7 AM SAT

The next wave of heavy rain will fall overnight, then race out of here before sunrise on Saturday. 

Saturday Temperatures

Still mild behind the storm, but turning windy. Note that a disturbance may bring a round of showers late in the day, with snow in the higher mountains (Garrett County).

Morning

Afternoon

Sunday Temperatures

Much Colder

Morning

Afternoon

Next Week: Next Storm

GFS Model Tuesday Night

I will have more on this later… But there has been some consistency that ‘something’ will ride along the active jet stream next week and tap into colder air.

The timing has been the challenge. Here we see it developing Tuesday.  Check back for an update mid day.

7 Day Forecast

Colder air will follow Nicole and next week may look like early winter. These are temps for Baltimore. It will be colder inland!

The pattern is trying to develop a storm with inland snow next week. This is still a challenge to determine which day this may develop… stay tuned.

NEW: November Outlook Map From NOAA  Showed This For The First Time

The Big Cool Down Into Mid November: NOAA Outlook Does This For First Time

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now