Flood Watch: Storm Update Monday Afternoon September 12

Monday Afternoon Update

September 12, 2022

Two things of important note today. First, the sun broke out and that is fuel for stronger storms. Second, the storms have erupted even earlier than I suggested. Despite trying to stay ahead of the model flaw, we continue to get more activity sooner than guidance has shown. 

Please keep in mind that some storms may turn severe. If so, warnings could be issued for storms that may contain damaging winds, large hail, or flooding in progress. Please stay alert to that possibility through tonight.

Flood Watch

Heavy rain and strong storms through the evening could top 1 to 3+ inches of rain. A Flood Watch includes central Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay and Southern Pennsylvania through York and Lancaster Counties. 

2 PM Conditions

Temperatures 

Doppler Radar Snapshot

This is much more active than expected at this time. Storms in Northern Baltimore Counties to southern PA… The line moving across I-81 between Winchester and Hagerstown is the one to watch for the next few hours.

Radar Simulation: HRRR Snapshot

This short-term forecast from a few hours earlier finally caught up to reality. At least closer than earlier today.

LIVE RADAR and LIGHTNING WIDGET

Compare to the forecast animation below

Forecast Animation 3 PM to Midnight

Here we see the line forming which may turn severe between 4 PM and 7 PM when reaching the western Baltimore and Washington suburbs. The risk of showers and storms will shift to Delmarva and continue through Midnight. 

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