March 2 After Morning Storm A Warm Day Then Chilly Rain Friday

March 2, 2023

Thursday Morning

Today will be a reverse of tomorrow. We start with rain, and there has been an eruption of lightning and thunder on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore. This woke up many people. After the morning rain, we will have a warm afternoon.

Friday will start with cold air sneaking in. The next storm will follow the same old track to our west, but may start with a brief period of snow or sleet. Temps will be too mild to stick, but the inland areas may have it fall for an hour or two. Then just a chilly rain, and it will be heavy.

This weekend, back to where we were all winter… Just Mild!

Doppler Radar Recap

I grabbed this image at 5 AM to show the cluster of thunderstorms in southern Maryland. This was an impressive light show and the boomers may have shaken the windows to wake many people up.  That band of rain to the west is already moving through.

Live Doppler Radar Widget

Track the back edge of rain moving through this morning.

Morning Temperatures

A push of warmer air is showing up to our west.

Morning Surface Weather

Our weather system this morning will be swept off the coast with a cold front. Mild air will follow, even with leftover cloud cover.

The main event is yet ANOTHER Southwest US storm following the same old storm track.

There has been more snow in Las Vegas and the northern suburbs of Phoenix than Baltimore this winter.

Temperatures  Afternoon:

A big warm up, even with leftover clouds.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 2

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 13ºF in 1980

SNOW: 4.7” in 2009

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 80ºF in 1972

EXPLORE MORE

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Friday

There will be a Snowstorm, just NOT HERE! This is the SAME OLD STORM TRACK, into the Great Lakes. WE may catch some wintry mix inland at the start, but this will mostly be a chilly rain!

If you have travel plans to Boston, this will be their second snowstorm in a week and it will affect roads and air travel.

ECMWF Model: 7 AM Fri to 1 PM Sat

The snow part of this storm will hit Chicago, near Detroit to Boston. Much of our region will get a heavy and chilly rain. Although the first few hours might bring a mix inland.

Local Snapshot 1 PM Friday

We have recently seen a larger area report some sleet or snow, but regardless of seeing it the temps will be above freezing. No stickage or road impacts expected.

NAM 3 Km Model Snapshot

This also shows a brief start with snow or sleet.

Rain Simulation

NAM 3 Km: 1 PM To Midnight

This is going to turn out to be a cold rain with gusty winds. There may be a very intense line of rain, perhaps with thunder close to midnight.

Storm Total: RAINFALL

This will be a heavy rain event. Many will get between 1 to 2 inches.

Morning Temperatures

The freezing line will creep in across northern Maryland.

Afternoon Temperatures

This is going to be a chilly rain! Yes, mostly RAIN! If you are in the region that gets sleet or snow mixed in, the surface is too warm for stickage.

7 Day Forecast

After this warm day, cold air sneaks in for Friday morning. The next ‘event’ may begin with snow or sleet Northwest, then a chilly rain.

Strong winds will follow Friday evening, then clearing on Saturday. Then we are back to the mild weather into the start of next week.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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