March 1 Weather Frosty Start Then Warming Away From The Water

March 1, 2023

Wednesday Morning

Starting a new month and officially Meteorological Spring. But it seems like we have been in the ambiguous season for months. Today we begin with thick frost that may require extra time to thaw or scrape off your windshield. This afternoon will turn warmer for most of us. I’ll explain.

There will be another snowstorm this week, but just to our north. Only our northern half may get some wintry mix for the first few hours on Friday.

Morning Temperatures

Even if you are not below freezing, your vehicle can still be colder than the air and support frost.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure has allowed the sky to clear and temps to drop. This is the reason for widespread frost.

Winds around the High Pressure will swing in from the south. That will begin a warm up, but also pick up a breeze from the Bay to keep shoreline areas chilly.

Wind Forecast

As High Pressure moves away, the winds will shift from the South and Southeast. This will attempt to bring in warming, but if you are near the chilly Chesapeake Bay, the wind may keep your temps in the 40s to near 50ºF.

Temperatures Afternoon:

There will be a push of warm air, battling with a breeze off the Chesapeake Bay. This will be a challenge for our official station at BWI.

However, farther west and south near Washington, temps may reach the 60s, but along the water and east remaining in the 40s.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Top 18 Events Since 1888

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 1

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 11ºF in 1980

SNOW: 6.0” in 1952

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 80ºF in 1972

Thursday

Rain Simulation

NAM 3 Km: 3 AM to Noon

There will be rain early in the morning, ending before noon. This means a damp commute to work, but by the ride home you may open the window and sunroof.

Morning Temperatures

A mild start, even with some rain.

Afternoon Temperatures

After the rain ends, the sun and warm breeze will boost us again. Just another WARM THURSDAY!

Storm Simulation:

Thursday Morning To Saturday Evening

It is still on: Another winter storm but mostly rain for our region. Rain Thursday morning will be followed by a warmer afternoon.

Friday: If we get this to start early enough, the snow and icy mix may lead the first few hours… but for the mountains and along the Maryland and Pennsylvania line up north.

Snapshots

GFS Model:

Midday – This is now the COLDER solution. Here we see that potential for snow or sleet in north central Maryland to southern PA and back in the mountains. Temps should be warm enough for wet roads if this verifies.

Rain will follow…

Friday Night

A snowstorm for New England and icy mix in the Poconos. Our region will end up on the warmer side, but still chilly… just with rain.

ECMWF Model

This model has had some trouble in the time range with recent storms. It is now in the warmer solution, but still a non-factor for us as we end up solely in the rain sector of this storm.

7 Day Forecast

Once again we have a Thursday as the warmest day of the week.  This will be followed by a colder storm, but we will end up on the rainy side. Some snow/sleet to start for the northern half of our region.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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