Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 12/24/2024 09:30:04 pm
Temperature

38°

Cloudy

29°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

70%

Feels Like

38°

Wind (N)

0mph

Air Pressure

30.31

Sun
Sun Rise

07:24 AM

Sun Set

04:49 PM

Day Length

09:25 Hours

Difference

0 min 11 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

01:23 AM

Moon Set

12:38 PM

Next: New Moon

Dec 30,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

Climate
Average Low

26°

43°

Average High
Record Low


(1983)

71°


(2015)
Record High
Conditions

Saturday Afternoon Update On Light Snow

Maryland Weather
Winter Weather
Forecast

February 25, 2023

Saturday Afternoon Update

Here we go! We’ve finally got some snow.  For many in our region this is only the second time this month and even all winter! Just think, 48 hours ago it was close to 80ºF, now we may double our snowfall for the season. That is not saying much!

The little system passing through the Mid Atlantic today is in the process of developing. I have seen the skepticism this morning when the sun was shining. Even my wife was doubtful, but she has also been very public of her opposing views to mine on winter. We have the full spectrum covered here.

The good news is that we have snow falling to satisfy the winter lovers, but the warm surface temperatures will help to keep the pavement wet.  Let’s take a look at the midday set up, then how this should evolve over the next few hours.

Noon Surface Weather

Low Pressure is located in West Virginia. This is forming as the result of converging upper level wind flow. To the North, there is a band of snow across Pennsylvania and New York. To the South there is a band of rain from Tennessee to Virginia.

In between is the new break out of snow now going across metro Washington, DC and central Maryland.

February 25 weather snow noon

 

Radar Loop 8 AM to Noon

Notice the spread of snow (blue) across the region. This is in response to the upper level dynamics allowing Low Pressure to develop and expand.

There may be a mix of snow and sleet as this crosses Southern Maryland and Delmarva.

Snow radar Saturday February 25

 

Doppler Radar At Noon

The steady light snow has reached as far north as Frederick, through metro Washington DC and even Annapolis.  Steady snow is falling across Kent Island to Easton. Sleet has been reported in Cambridge and Crisfield.

February 25 weather snow radar noon

 

Radar Simulation Slider —> 12 PM to 6 PM

This first image is the forecast for noon that should match the Radar Image above. However, we can see there is more actual coverage of snow than the model predicted. This shows us that is has underplayed the event… But I had mentioned that in prior reports.

As this develops, the snow should peak mid afternoon, possibly including the PA line, but less will fall farther north. The bulk will be central Maryland… ending before evening.

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Radar Simulation

Just putting the slider above in motion. The snow will peak mid afternoon, then end before sunset.

February 25 weather snow radar simulation afternoon

 

Now Potential

Due to the warm ground and temps just above freezing, any stickage would be limited to the grassy areas and car tops.

Most likely expectations will be between a coating to 1 inch.

Model forecast maps

NAM 3 Km

february 25 weather snow forecast nam

 

ECMWF

 

GFS

february 25 weather snow forecast gfs

 

Temperatures At Noon

Where the snow falls, temps may drop a few degrees. However in the core of this event, temps should remain safely just above freezing.

February 25 weather temperatures noon

 

Forecast Temperatures

Temperatures

Afternoon:

Temps will be close to freezing in the northern areas around the MD/PA Line. This may support more stickage.

Notice the mid 30s in central Maryland and Delmarva. That is why roads are likely to remain wet.

February 25 weather temperatures Saturday afternoon

 

Tonight

Not much cooling after the snow ends, so the concern for icing is minimal if you have plans to go out. This may be different in the morning.

February 25 weather temperatures Saturday night

 

Sunday Weather

There may be some morning fog, then we will get into clearing and mild temps in the afternoon.

Temperatures

Morning

February 25 weather temperatures Sunday morning

 

Afternoon

February 25 weather temperatures Sunday afternoon

 

Monday: Next Storm

The system that is bringing Blizzard Conditions to Southern California will reach the Great Lakes and once again keep us on the warmer side. This will be another rain event for us. Some wintry mix at the start in central PA.

Radar Simulation:

Monday Morning To Tuesday Afternoon

february 25 weather rain monday

 

7 Day Forecast

After today’s winter blip, we turn the tables again.

The pattern repeats with a rain storm, then warm. There is a significant change on the way, but after this coming week.

february 25 weather forecast 7 day

 

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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