Friday July 2 2021
Elsa just formed as a tropical storm yesterday and has been in a hurry. The forward speed has been on a tear at 28 mph to the west. Now the sustained winds are up to 75 mph according to Air Force Reconnaissance.
Interests for this storm include the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and Florida. Then there is potential for this to impact the Eastern US and Mid Atlantic through Thursday.
Satellite Image
Large Storm
Hurricane Force Winds extend 25 miles from the center.
Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 140 miles away.
This morning Barbados recorded 74 mph sustained wind with a gust to 86 mph
Satellite Loop
National Hurricane Center Update
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
Long Range Track
Outlook may bring the center or some impact to Mid Atlantic By Thursday. See the forecast animation below.
Closer Look At The Forecast Track
This Weekend
Next Week/Florida Landfall
Outlook: Mid Atlantic Impact?
This is the GFS Model forecast from early this morning, and it shows a path through Ocean City Thursday night.
I DO NOT BUY THIS!!!
This was prior to Elsa becoming a hurricane AND has the position WEST of Florida, instead of the landfall NHC shows up central Florida. Also, the fast forward speed plays a role now in where it will be and what other systems it can interactive with 5 days away.
That is more important for where it may end up by next Thursday. But we need to watch it closely.
Wind (40+) Arrival Time
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.
In Case You Missed It
July 1 Storm Video, Photos, Radar, and Damage Map
Sunshine State Of Mind
Embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.
This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.
Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.
14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)
We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.
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