June 16 Fathers Day Weather Ideal Before The Big Heat Wave This Week

Sunday June 16

Morning Report

Happy Father’s Day. I am looking forward to a hike and some other plans my boys have to surprise me today. We continue to be treated to wonderful weather this weekend.

We will experience the first true heat wave in a few years in the week ahead. This is pretty typical for mid-to-late June, as we can expect five days or more of the 90s or even hotter afternoons. 

What you might hear on the News or read online may be the term Heat Dome. This may sound more dramatic than the classic ‘heat wave’, but they describe the same thing. The ‘Wave’ is the trend of high temperatures. The ‘Dome’ is the area of High Pressure that gets stalled for many days over a large area. 

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure that has moved in continues to carve out pleasant weather for Father’s Day. As this shifts off the East Coast, it will gradually build in more heat and make the week ahead less comfortable.

Afternoon Temperatures

Pleasant with low humidity and temperatures near or slightly below average.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY June 16

Sunrise at 5:40 AM

Sunset at 8:35 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  63ºF

Record 50ºF in 1958; 1961

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 99ºF 1991

Monday

Starting to crank up the numbers into the 90s, at least for metro areas. 

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures 

Looking Ahead: Jet Stream 

Monday to Friday

The building Ridge of High Pressure will hold off the east coast for much of the week.

A Heat Wave and a Heat Dome are basically the SAME THING!!! They describe the area under the influence of the hot air mass and are simple headlines for News stories. 

Thursday

The peak of the HEAT will be across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, then shift east.

Thursday  Morning Surface Weather

As High-Pressure parks off the East Coast and locks in that Heat Wave/Heat Dome, it may help direct something tropical into Florida. It is possible this may be a named system, and could be unfortunate for the water-logged parts of the state to get more than they need.

Storm Forecast Animation: Wednesday to Sunday 

Plotting the High Pressure may also help understand the impact of a possible tropical system from Florida into the Southern Plains, then looping around into a Cold Front that reaches the East Coast next weekend. 

Snapshots:

Friday

Saturday 

Sunday

Model Temperature SUGGESTION

I am showing the GFS Model forecast for Baltimore at BWI simply to highlight the aggressive nature of the heat. I am holding back a little in my forecast below, but there is a suggestion of temps reaching over 100ºF next weekend. I think the humidity may hold us back a few notches. But the race is on… 

7 Day Forecast

We will be under the influence of that High Pressure all week. The peak of the heat will be just to our west, then shift in later in the week. This will get us to approach 100ºF as humidity increases, and we might get in on some of that tropical moisture next weekend. 

If You Missed It: Click To See

5 Tornadoes Confirmed In Maryland (so far) on June 5

June 5 Storm Report (Preliminary) With Videos And Photos 

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF