Tropical Storm Bret Named And Expected To Reach Caribbean As A Hurricane

Monday Evening June 19, 2023

Our new storm has quickly organized and The National Hurricane Center has officially named Tropical Storm Bret. It is located in the central Atlantic Ocean and moving to the west at 21 mph.

While this is at minimal intensity, very warm tropical waters AND favorably light upper level winds will allow this to further strengthen this week. It is expected to become the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic just as it enters the eastern Caribbean.

Island interests include the Lesser Antilles, British and US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret Satellite

Satellite Snapshot

Official Status Report: 5 PM Advisory

• LOCATION…11.3N 42.2W
• ABOUT 1295 MI…2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

Wide Satellite

I want to point out that in addition to Tropical Storm Bret, there is a second storm to the east that looks very healthy. It has a 50% chance to develop in the next 48 hours. If so, it will be named Cindy.

National Hurricane Center Discussion

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was

located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is

moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is

expected to to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the system should

be approaching the Lesser Antilles late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.

No Warnings In Effect

Lesser Antilles Islands can expect impacts later this week.

Forecast Model Intensity

There is a 65% chance based on these model plots, for TS Bret to reach Hurricane intensity this week.

HWRF Model Forecast

Wednesday Evening To Saturday Evening

The impact on the Lesser Antilles islands on the eastern edge of the Caribbean may be felt Thursday night, with the first landfall on Friday morning.

The second landfall ‘might be’ between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later on Saturday.

This model has the storm curving north, but this is not what the National Hurricane Center forecast is showing below.

Snapshot Saturday Evening

This is the last plot on the forecast animation. I am showing this for potential timing, however, tropical forecast tracks and timing are very fickle. Any slight change in speed or upper level winds can shift this a lot. So use this as a gauge for the next plots to come out for any change.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Cone

Here we see the forecast to reach Hurricane Intensity on Thursday, with landfall crossing the Lesser Antilles Thursday night into Friday morning. Then a close pass, with this plot south of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Note this model keeps the storm track on a linear path as opposed to the HWRF above.

Forecast Global Model Guidance

The collection of model forecast plots all point to a southward track then skirting the southern edge of the eastern Caribbean islands. This is subject to change, and I will be watching for any model bias to show up this week.

Forecast GFS Model Ensemble Guidance

2023 Hurricane Names

Note: On January 16, there was an unnamed Tropical Depression identified by The National Hurricane Center. It did not get a name but will be included in the overall tropical records. It was located about 300 miles from Bermuda.

I will have a more detailed article on the history of names soon.

Names are in alphabetical order.

• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Don
• Emily
• Franklin
• Gert
• Harold
• Idalia
• Jose
• Katia
• Lee
• Margot
• Nigel
• Ophelia
• Phillipe
• Rina
• Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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