Record High Temperatures Drought Conditions And Weekend Rain

April 13, 2023

Thursday Night Update

It’s been a while since I wrote an evening update on the weather because it has been so quiet. I initially intended to just focus on the drought conditions to help explain the Fire Weather Alerts this week. Then we went and hit a record high temperature today, which only reinforces our very dry surface.

But this evening at my son’s baseball game, I was talking with the coaches about this weekend and if rain will affect our practice on Saturday. Questions about the rain this weekend have been common, so I wanted to add some insight on all of the above.

Moderate Drought

The latest drought monitor shows most of central Maryland and The Lower Eastern Shore at level D1 = Moderate Drought. Combine a nearly snowless winter plus total precipitation nearly 1/2 of normal for the year, and the problems become more obvious.

Local Conditions For Baltimore at BWI

• Rainfall to date: 5.94”
• Normal = 11.45”
• Deficit = 5.51
• LAST YEAR TO DATE = 12.30”

Record Heat Today

Baltimore tied the record high for the date of 89ºF, which was set on April 13 in 1977.

In Washington DC, Dulles tied their record set in that same year at 87ºF.

A lot of people seemed to like this post:

Dozens Of Records Tied or Broken Today

WARM! Look at all the locations across the United States that were approaching or set a new record high temperature this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/fEpSHStikk

— Mark Tarello (@mark_tarello) April 13, 2023

Weekend Rain To Bring Some Relief

We continue with this pattern of getting cooler weather and rain on the weekend. Here we go again.

An upper level disturbance will be responsible for unsettled weather, but it will not be an organized storm.

Saturday Afternoon Set Up

This upper level pocket of cool air will help produce widespread showers and cooler temps.

Local Look

Here is the NAM 12 KM model showing the radar simulations between 8 AM and 8 PM.

Snapshots

All I can say about this is that there will be scattered showers. The simulation can not pick up on specific details that well.  I would plan for off/on rain that will range from light to moderate. However, there will be dry pockets in between.

Plans for mid 60s and dampness if you have outdoor plans. I do not see a lightning risk at this time.

11 AM

2 PM

5 PM

Larger Look

The ECMWF Model shows the Saturday showers. Sunday looks mostly dry, with the best chance of rain coming with a line of thunderstorms overnight.

Snapshot Saturday

Snapshot Sunday Night

Snapshot Monday

This system should be moving away Monday morning, and leaving cooler temps to start next week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

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