February 25, 2023
Saturday Morning
In a normal winter, this would be a non-event. But this is not a normal winter, and we just broke a record with high temperatures in the upper 70s on Thursday. Now, two days later we have a band of light snow developing just to remind us of what winter should bring. For many this may be only the second day this winter with some snow falling. The last one was on February 1 when BWI barely broke the snow drought.
High Pressure in New England is our source for the cold air. A lot of our region has dropped to near or below freezing this morning.
The atmosphere has a split flow with snow to our north and rain to the south. There is a marginal blending or convergence region over us. That is where we expect light snow to break out.
I will show you a comparison of 3 model simulation sliders to get an idea of the agreement for the snow on the way. I leveled to include the snow total product as well. Before that I need to emphasize a few things:
We have set the stage for the cold reality check. However some warming ahead of the precipitation is expected by late morning and midday.
Let’s start with the High Resolution NAM 3 Km animation. Then we can look at the comparative sliders between 3 KM, European ECMWF, and GFS.
Note, this model has a tendency to be display 1 to 2 hours slower than verified.
Again, we may expect the snow to arrive 1 to 2 hours earlier than shown here.
This product suggests a coating to under 1 inch.
This product suggests
This product suggests
Temps will be close to freezing in the northern areas around the MD/PA Line. This may support more stickage.
Notice the mid 30s in central Maryland and Delmarva. That is why roads are likely to rain wet.
Not much cooling after the snow ends, so the concern for icing is minimal if you have plans to go out. This may be different in the morning.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 29ºF
Record 8ºF in 1914
SNOW: 5” in 1934
Normal High in Baltimore: 49ºF
Record 83ºF in 1930 *THE HOTTEST FEB TEMP ON RECORD FOR BALTIMORE
There may be some morning fog, then we will get into clearing and mild temps in the afternoon.
Morning
Afternoon
The system that is bringing Blizzard Conditions to Southern California will reach the Great Lakes and once again keep us on the warmer side. This will be another rain event for us. Some wintry mix at the start in central PA.
Monday Morning To Tuesday Afternoon
After today’s winter blip, we turn the tables again.
The pattern repeats with a rain storm, then warm. There is a significant change on the way, but after this coming week.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school 
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
