Wild Weather Week May Bring Record Warmth And End With Some Snow

February 21 2023

What if I told you we would have a severe thunderstorm followed by a rainbow, then rain with a little sleet, followed by a warm day near 80ºF that could break a 149-year old record, only to be capped by a little snow two days later. Oh wait, and all in the last week of February? If this was a Hollywood script, they would throw it out for not being believable.

Well, our winter without a winter still has some tricks up its sleeve, and we have a chance to see all of it this week. We are in a very unusual winter in the Eastern US, challenging some of the lowest seasonal snow totals while some top warmest winter months. There has been plenty of winter, just locked in for the western half of the country.

All winter we have been tracking one Polar Vortex disruption to another. Each time, our brief burst of cold air arrived on a weekend, and only lasted a day or two. So at the very hint of wintry weather, I understand dismissing the talk.  I have lowered my expectations as well.

Headlines:

• Today: Thunderstorms
• Wednesday: Rain with sleet mixed in NORTH
• Thursday: Record High?
• Saturday: Light Snow?

This is why this Meme of the Maryland Flag seems appropriate to show again.

One thing I recall from my college professor and even when I was teaching:

• Extremes Breed Extremes!

Also:

• The most extreme can break a pattern.

Let me share one example:

I know we have had many times with temps in the 70s then snow not far away.  I found one extreme in the record books in Baltimore

• Year: 1967
• Feb 2 – Record High = 71ºF
• Feb 7 – Record Snow= 10.1”

I am not suggesting we will see a repeat, but there is more hope of something after today’s storm and Winter Folklore:

“If in winter there is thunder Snow may fall in one week or under”

That brings us to this afternoon:

A squall line produced some lightning (and thunder), which I shared on social media.

Then a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for central Maryland.

This was the snapshot at 1:35 PM, when lightning and hail was falling in the metro area.

Radar Loop Recap:

12:20 PM to 2 PM

This cell was moving at a forward speed of 65 mph! Most areas reported wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

Rare Low Rainbows

Photos from Frederick and Annapolis in Maryland both showed a low horizon rainbow seen following this storm.

This was due to the low angle of the sun in the February afternoon.

WILD DAYS AHEAD

Wednesday Winter Storm

Here are the Watches and Warnings for this next event. There is plenty of winter, just not here (yet).

This follows the storm track to The Great Lakes, with a large area under a Winter Storm or Ice Storm Warning.

Local Impact

This is NOT our storm. However, it may begin with snow/sleet pellets mixed in. I do not expect a travel issue. Just some pinging on some windows, NORTH OF BALTIMORE! So in the city and south, you may just read about it online.

Model Comparison

Imagine this: Millions of dollars invested with millions of calculations, and yet there is still a wide discrepancy for a weather event just one day away.

• The GFS has trended COLDER with more snow and failed often this winter.
• The Canadian GEM performs best with arctic air. We don’t have that here.
• The European in the middle has continued to be the best performing, even with it’s failings.

Until something special happens, I will continue to watch The European ECMWF as the benchmark for mid range events.

Storm Forecast (ECMWF)

Wednesday Morning To Thursday Afternoon

After this storm passes, the surge of warm air will flow in Thursday.

Jet Stream

This storm buckled the upper air flow, allowing the surge of near record warmth.

This will not last, so enjoy it. Colder air will follow by the weekend.

Forecast Temperature Thursday Afternoon

I am holding with our chance to hit one of the oldest records on the books. There was a 2-day heat wave in 1874. The second date was February 24 when Baltimore reached 78ºF. That was 30 degrees ABOVE average.

• That WAS 149 YEARS AGO!
• That was 30 degrees ABOVE average.

I mentioned this record last week, but I know it is not as impressive as a snow forecast so it will be forgotten unless I mention it 🙂

Notice the cold air in the snow zone. There are plenty of sub-freezing readings in that air mass that will arrive this weekend.

Temperature Outlook:

What goes up, must come down. Here is the European ECMWF Model plot.

I highlighted that it is showing only 75ºF for Thursday, but we often end up warmer than projected in these set ups.

The drop to 39ºF on Saturday might be deceiving. It may be colder in the afternoon, when snow may fall.

Looking farther out, the next push of colder air is plotted for the start of March. By that point mid 40s to 30s would be below average and could be more sustained than any cold spells we’ve had all winter.

Saturday 7 AM to 10 PM

ECMWF Model Forecast

Here we see a jet streak developing a region of precipitation across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast US. This includes a band of snow across central Maryland for a few hours. It is not a big event, simply a reflection of faster winds aloft.

Saturday Snapshot

This is a 6 Hour summary between 7 AM and 1 PM.

I will NOT suggest this is a promise. It is a projection from this model and subject to change again.  It is worth watching. There is support for an extreme flip and it is still winter. Stranger things have happened before.

Temperatures Saturday Afternoon

Can it stick?

Honestly, even with this forecast of near Freezing, it is late February AFTER many warm days this week. It will be challenging at best to get stickage, and if so it would be more likely on the grass during the day, rather than roads.

Take Away:

We have had this theme often this winter: Very warm to end the week, then briefly very cold on a Saturday. This time is may be on both ends of the extreme. This is the kind of thing that can break a pattern, and just might arrive a little too late for those of us missing the winter we never had.

Trivia: Has there been a Winter with NO Snow?

NO!

However, there was one winter with UNDER 1” in 1949 to 1950

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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