January 30, 2023
Monday Morning Report
Today starts off and will remain mild. There are areas of patchy fog around Baltimore, and rain in southern Maryland. This afternoon will be the most comfortable of the week.
Arctic air is showing up on the weather map just to our west, and it will begin to arrive tomorrow. As a result, it now appears a band of showers will develop that will mix snow and sleet in with rain.
Wednesday morning remains a little contentious with the modeling, so I ask again to keep an open mind. After that, the core of the arctic blast will reach us this weekend, just in time for the Maryland Polar Bear Plunge.
I am showing the wide view today to showcase the arctic blast. This air mass is undeniable and will be slowly moving in our direction. The 20s have reached Dallas with temperatures in the -teens and -20s across the Northern Plains and Rockies.
The arctic front remains just to our west. We remain on the mild side with rain showers in southern Maryland.
Tracking this front is the challenge of the week as the speed and progress will determine both how cold we get AND if light snow may break out over the next few days.
Light rain across southern Maryland…
Today will be the warmest day of the week! I hope you get out to enjoy it.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record -4ºF in 1873
SNOW: 9.1” 1930
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 72ºF 1914
Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore
Today Is Still 3rd Latest
The arctic front will develop some showers with rain south and snow on the north side. This will slowly pass southward through central Maryland during the afternoon.
If there are light snow or sleet showers in central Maryland, temps should be just above freezing on the surface.
This is still up for debate as the models remain widely spread for snow or no! This is all based on where that arctic front settles. If it remains across Maryland, we get light snow. If it moves farther south, we miss that disturbance.
This has trended back north with the front and showing snow showers.
This has been the most persistent keeping the front across Maryland and letting that impulse impact fully, albeit with light snow before and through sunrise.
This model remains farthest south with the front, keeping us dry.
We will definitely experience a colder winter week. The uncertainty for snow remains and it appears whatever we may see will be small.
The arctic air will be arriving this week. The progress of that air mass and the cold front is the make or break for the mid week snow. We do expect the core of the coldest air to reach us Saturday…. Unfortunately appropriate for the Maryland Polar Bear Plunge.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
