January 29 Rain Showers Brief Warming And Then Much Colder

January 29 2023

Sunday Morning Report

A frontal boundary bringing in rain today will be crossing the mountains today, then central areas mid day. Some afternoon showers, but this system may fall apart east of the mountains.

A brief boost in temps on Monday will be followed by a dramatic cool down.  The question about snow remains uncertain as computer model guidance is still split.

I remain confident with the cold air mass, but I ask you keep an open mind about the rest given the low confidence in guidance.

Headlines

• Today: Rain Showers
• Monday: Very Mild
• Colder Air On The Way

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

A steady field of rain is streaming across the Appalachian Mountains. This is our weather system, but it is likely to fall apart east of the mountains (see below).

Behind this cold front, much colder air will spread south and east. This will reach the Mid Atlantic coast for the second half of the work week.

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

We will be tracking rain entering the mountains this morning, then falling apart as it heads east.

Radar Simulation

10 AM to 7 PM

Noon Weather

Radar Snapshot 

Temperatures

This may be the warmest time of day, before the rain showers arrive.

3 PM Weather

Radar Snapshot 

Temperatures

Notice the central areas drop from near 50ºF to the mid 40s.

Climate Trivia

Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore

Today Is Still 3rd Latest

1. Feb 21 in 1973 (50 years ago)
2. Feb 6 in 1914 (109 years ago)
3. Jan 28 in 2023 (So Far Confirmed)
4. Jan 25 in 1992 ( 31 years ago)
5. Jan 25 in 1901 ( 122 years ago)
6. Jan 23 in 1966 (57 years ago)

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 29

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record -7ºF in 1963

SNOW: 9.1” 1966

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 75ºF 1975

Monday Weather

We may begin with fog, then the sun will break out to boost temps in a hurry.

Temperatures Morning

Temperatures Afternoon Highs

We will see colder air reach the mountains through central Pennsylvania. However, a surge of warm air for metro areas will jump into the upper 50s and perhaps a few spots hitting 60ºF.

Storm Outlook:

I am going to show the comparison of The Canadian GEM to the The European ECMWF Model. The GEM tends to perform at its best when there is arctic air in place.  We will have that in the week ahead. However, there is a very big difference!

Canadian GEM

Tuesday Afternoon to NEXT Monday

This keeps the front closer mid week, and keeps the light snow in our region on Wednesday. It also is still developing a coastal storm next Monday.

Snapshot:

Wednesday still showing light snow.

European ECMWF

This has held on to suppressing the cold front farther south. As a result, the next round of precipitation would be on Thursday and missing our region. Instead of what it had shown earlier as a light snow event, it is now mostly dry.

It brings in the arctic air over the weekend. This is a case where it may be too cold to snow. In actuality it brings High Pressure to the Mid Atlantic, inhibiting that previously touted storm.

Snapshot:

Thursday now keeping us dry.

My Thoughts

I am still not trusting this cold air will reach that far south. There has been a history of models going too far south, then trending back north. So I am keeping an open mind and I hope you can as well.

Also See:

NOAA Outlook: Cold Start To February AND La Niña Ending Soon

Click for the full report

7 Day Forecast

Very Cold Air is expected next Saturday. I have modified the temperatures to not be as cold as some products have suggested. We often tend to see computer guidance push too far to an extreme, then pull back.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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