January 19, 2023

Thursday Morning Report

Today is going to be a wet day. We have already begun with rain and will see more showers periodically throughout the day, culminating with a heavy line tonight. This may include some thunder.

We seem to now be in a pattern with a windy day following the storm, then another storm every 3 days. However, now the track is shifting east and south, allowing for more cold air.  So the next two weather systems will introduce a more wintry mix.  While there is a mention of snow, the cold air is marginal. This is not the big storm, and I am not ready to talk about stickage or accumulation as the ground is warm AND there will be a split with a rain line across the areas.  However, we are changing weather pattern as advertised.  Let’s take a look.

Headlines

• Today: Rain Today (Live radar below)
• Friday: Windy
• Next Two Storms: More Wintry Mix Involved Sunday and Wednesday.

Morning Temperatures

It is chilly, but above freezing.

Morning Surface Weather

This latest storm system has brought steady rain into Pennsylvania, with showers to the south across Maryland and Virginia. These showers will expand during the day.  To the west, a cold front has a line of heavy rain and some cells with thunder and lightning.

There is a snow part of this storm that has already produced 1 to 2 feet of snow across Nebraska, now spreading across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

This contrast has produced a lot of wind which will we get tomorrow.

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation: 7 AM to 10 PM

I believe this model is running a little slow, so we will have to adjust the timing during the day. It looks like it may be off by 1 to 2 hours.

Snapshot Tonight

The time stamps shows 9 PM, but we may see this line between 7 PM and 8 PM. It will be a heavy band of rain with strong winds and perhaps some pockets of lightning and thunder.

3 PM Temperatures

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 19

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record -5ºF in 1994

SNOW: 7.7” 1961

Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 69ºF 1951

Friday

This will be a windy day with gusts OVER 30 mph.

Snow In The Mountains:

Radar Simulation: 7 AM to 7 PM

If you are headed to McHenry in MD, Seven Springs in PA, or Snowshoe in WV, the overall expectation is a fresh 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Storm Simulation

ECMWF Model 7 AM SUN to 7 AM THU

The European Model has been steady with this storm track. I am showing the next two weather systems to highlight the snow (blue) getting closer to the urban areas. Please see my thoughts and two key snapshots below.

My Thoughts:

We are lacking in deep cold air, so it is hard to see much more than a mix or even perhaps a brief accumulation farther inland. However, there may be some accumulation inland and more than likely an adjustment to the timing and tracks. So I am keeping an open mind and being honest with you: I don’t fully trust the modeling. This European prognostication is the best we have got for now.

Snapshot: Sunday Evening

This looks like it will start with some wintry mix, especially inland. At this point it looks like the warm ground and marginal temps will not support stickage. Just local roads will be wet. There may be some stickage and road impact if you are traveling through PA or western Maryland. I will keep addressing that.

Snapshot: Wednesday

The next storm system will have colder air and perhaps a little more snow at the start.  Just keeping this on the docket for our look at the week ahead.

7 Day Forecast

The numbers are more seasonal, but missing arctic impact… They do show a pattern change and we will see how that change evolves over the following few weeks. This is our opportunity to get winter to settle in and the global signals are still supporting it.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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