January 6 2023

Friday Morning Report

Finally! The abnormally warm pattern has come to an end, and it did so with robust showers and some storms on Thursday. Yes, there was a persistent cluster of rain in the evening that produced thunder and some hail across central Maryland. Now the cool down is underway, or at least back to near normal.

Stop me if you heard this before: “If in winter there is thunder, snow may fall in one week or under”. We still have that system on Sunday that will try to produce snow, and I think I have a better idea on it, which I will elaborate on below.

Winter Lovers: This is NOT our pattern change, however the week ahead will be closer to average. That at least will allow colder nights for local mountains to blow snow for skiers and snowboarders. 

Morning Temperatures

Starting to cool down…

Surface Weather

While temps have cooled a little, the actual cold front will be swinging through this morning. That is bringing a final push of showers, primarily across north central Maryland to Pennsylvania.

Snow showers will follow in the western mountains while the sky will try to clear in metro areas this afternoon. 

Live Radar Widget

Tracking the rain near and north of the Maryland and Pennsylvania border around sunrise.

This produce is very sensitive. Rain is more likely falling under the brighter green shading. Sprinkles might be falling elsewhere.

Radar Simulation – NAM 3 Km Model

7 AM to 4 PM

After the morning showers pass through, we should get into clearing and more sunshine in metro areas, however the temps will be much cooler than earlier this week. One hint of that will be the snow showers in western Maryland. 

3 PM Temperatures

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 6

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record 5ºF in 1904

SNOW: 3.4” 1989

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 72ºF 1950

Saturday 

Morning 

Afternoon 

Closer to seasonally average numbers.

Looking Ahead To Sunday

It is almost comical at this point: The GFS Model is still trying to emphatically produce a snow burst, while the European ECWMF is ‘Ho-Hum’ with light mix at best. The difference in location (GFS is farther north), and timing (GFS is faster).

Comparison

As I mentioned a few days ago, the ground temps are warm. So even with the more aggressive attempt at this short wave, stickage will be a struggle. With that said, we could get lucky with a brief burst of snow ‘falling’ and maybe laying on the grass inland.  

More than likely, there will be some hybrid between the models, leaning more towards the Euro result. Any slushy mix will trend towards a light rain as it ends Monday morning.  That means, we should not be looking at impact for work or school. Not this round.

Model Animations: 

GFS Model

7 AM SUN to 7 AM MON

This is the more aggressive development with a snow burst Sunday evening. This is in part due to seeing the energy more robust AND a little farther north tapping into colder air.

Snapshot Sunday Evening 

As much as I would love to promote this, I believe it is a bit overdone. Even if it verifies, the ground temps suggest more melting than stickage.

ECMWF MODEL

7 AM SUN to 7 AM MON

This is more than likely to be closer to what really happens. It is farther south, so not able to tap into as much of the marginally colder air.

I do believe the event may end up faster or closer to the GFS timing, but the output of rain/snow mix helps convey the lower impact on roads.   

Snapshot Sunday Night

This is 3 hours later than the time frame for the GFS above, because it is slower bringing in the event.  I think its best to suggest a rain/snow mix in the evening and at night, with little to no stickage for most of the region.  However, if the snow wins for a few hours, we could see a coating on the grass. Especially west and north of the cities. 

My Thoughts:

We will be trending closer to ‘average’ temperatures over the next week. This is NOT the pattern change. The modeling is still having trouble with the overall pattern, and I must say it is disappointing. But I know there are some very intelligent atmospheric experts that are losing sleep trying to see why the modeling is struggling.  The truth of the matter is that we have low confidence with surface weather outputs beyond 3 to 5 days now. That does seem like a step backwards. 

Going forward, there is still good reason to see a pattern change based on the global circulations and historical analogs. So I am sticking with a colder, wintry pattern for the latter half of January into February.

The atmosphere will remain active, and even in a mild winter pattern we can still get snow.  Do not despair with this Extended Forecast showing only near seasonal temps. We have not yet reached that period for the pattern change, yet.

7 Day Forecast

Next week will be closer to normal. That is cooler, but not arctic cold.  As I discussed in a few prior reports: The month will be mild, but trend more wintry for the latter part of January. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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