January 5 2023

Thursday Morning Report

We are now 5 days into the new year and every afternoon in Baltimore has reached the 60s. This is also expected today. However, we will be trending cooler and back to near normal this weekend. 

This morning starts off a little damp and mild, with areas of fog. It will turn cooler this afternoon! But before we get deeper into our weather, I want to address the major storm hitting the West Coast.

Surface Weather

Locally, there is some patchy fog as the front is finally moving through, but we will have showers develop this afternoon as cooler air arrives. This includes snow in the Maryland mountains. See the simulation below. 

That ‘Bomb Cyclone’ hitting Northern California is the real deal!  Winds gusted over 85 mph overnight! Yes, over 2 inches of rain around Los Angeles, with up to 10 inches or more near and north of San Francisco.  In the higher Sierra Nevada Mountains, snowfall forecasts for the week ahead are between 4 and 8 Feet! More detail on this extreme weather event below. 

Bomb Cyclone

We’ve had a few of these over the past month, but this one off the Pacific Ocean is simply showing that the atmosphere is still charged up and will continue with an active winter…

What is truly impressive about this is the amount of moisture is more like an El Niño pattern, rather than a La Niña storm.

NOAA Storm Statements

(You may need to pinch and zoom in on the text)

National Weather Service: San Francisco Bay Area

I am showing this because last week I used the word ‘Marvel’ at the Lake Effect Snow in Buffalo. Some people felt it was insensitive given the high death toll.  

That term is used from a meteorological perspective, and NWS did so for this storm while acknowledging it is a life threatening event:

🛰Marvel at the satellite imagery this morning. Those asking, “Where’s the Storm”? It’s still coming. The rain this morning is not the main event so to speak. Heavier rain is expected later today. Blue dots are lightning flashes. #cawx pic.twitter.com/Q3E4xYur5m

— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 4, 2023

Wind Gusts To 85 mph

This was reported last night…

Impressive wind showing up in Marin. Gusts up to 85 mph now (4:10-4:30)! #cawx pic.twitter.com/D2VSUN768s

— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) January 5, 2023

Local Weather

Morning Temperatures 

I am showing a wider view this morning to highlight that while we remain mild in the mid 50s, the 30s in western PA and Ohio will be heading our way.  We will start to nicely cool down this afternoon.

3 PM Temperatures 

High temperatures may be between 1 PM and 3 PM, then cooling with the wind shift to the west.

Radar Simulation – NAM 3 Km Model

12 PM Thu to 8 AM Fri

Showers will expand this afternoon across Delmarva, then a second band west and north of Baltimore this evening. 

Friday Morning: The final push of energy may arrive around daybreak Friday with this line of rain.

Note the blue: That is snow for Western Maryland and West Virginia where they may accumulate a few fresh inches. That will set up a good weekend for the ski areas. 

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 5

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record 1ºF in 1877

SNOW: 2.8” 2003

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 69ºF 1997

Friday 

Morning 

Still above average, but trending colder as we head through the day and weekend.

Afternoon 

These readings are closer to ‘normal’.

Looking Ahead To This Weekend

We are zeroing in on Sunday afternoon and evening. Regardless of the prior GFS snowy model or less snow European model solution, ground temps are too warm for this to be a local impact. Travel in the mountains however may be affected. 

Storm Animation: ECMWF MODEL

7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

I have lost faith in the GFS because it is all over the place.  Here, we see the European Model still showing the Sunday event with higher elevation snow. 

Snapshot Sunday Evening

I have been saying roads are too warm for stickage, except in higher elevations. But this event is more of an exercise in proving model guidance continues to be poor.

My Thoughts:

I am losing confidence in computer model guidance. There seems to be a step backward even with mid range events (3 to 5 days). For over a week, the global pattern suggested something would develop this weekend, even if not a major impact (too warm to stick).  But there is still not a lock on how that will play out.

So going forward, there is good reason to see a pattern change based on the global circulations and historical analogs. So I am sticking with a colder, wintry pattern for the latter half of January. 

The atmosphere will remain active, and even in a mild winter pattern we can still get snow. So do not despair with this Extended Forecast showing only near seasonal temps. We have not yet reached that period for the pattern change, yet.

7 Day Forecast

I’ve highlighted Friday: I put 50ºF for BWI, but it will remain in the 40s for most inland from the cities and Bay.

Next week will be closer to normal. That is cooler, but not arctic cold.  As I discussed in a few prior reports: The beginning of the month will be mild, and we just had that.  This is the first step back to reality, and we will wait for the middle of the month for more signals to send in the winter cavalry. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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