December 16 2022

Friday Morning Update 

The ground may be wet this morning, but the rain showers are moving away. Most importantly, the ground is still above freezing. That is why roads were OK despite the freezing rain yesterday. 

The storm brought close to 1 inch of rain to much of the region, with nearly 2 inches on parts of Delmarva. 

Next week will be mostly dry, but the end of the week may bring a larger winter storm followed by arctic air before Christmas.

Morning Temperatures

Thermometers are above freezing within a 2-hour drive of Baltimore in all directions. There are a few pockets near freezing down I-81 near Harrisonburg, and in western PA near Somerset.

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Headlines

• Weekend: Windy and Colder, Maybe a Flurry
• Western Maryland (and nearby ski resorts): Snow Showers
• Next Week: Chilly and Dry
• Just Before Christmas: Possible Major Storm AND Arctic Outbreak

Morning Surface Weather

If you are traveling north on I-95, you will run into the storm as it continues to bring moderate to heavy rain from New York to Boston. The snow and ice are inland, with a few feet expected in the mountains of New England. 

Wind Forecast

I wanted to show this New England perspective to show the storm tracking near Boston, and the winds that will follow. We will have gusty afternoons both Saturday and Sunday.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Temperatures remain colder and with the wind at 15 to 25 mph, it will feel like the 20s and 30s.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 16

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 10ºF in 1951

SNOW: 6.0” 1974

Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF

Record 71ºF 1971

Weekend Jet Stream:

Upper level winds will carry some impulses our way (Vort Maxes). They will keep snow falling over far western Maryland and the high mountains of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.  

These Vort Maxes can carry extra clouds over the mountains with possible flurries.

Key Timeframes:

Saturday Night

A weak Vort Max will pass through central Maryland bring a small chance for flurries.

Sunday Afternoon

A stronger Vort Max has a better chance to build clouds and flurries.

Looking Ahead To The Big Show

Jet Stream Height Anomalies 7 AM Tue Dec 20 to 7 AM Sat Dec 24

Snapshot Friday Night December 23

This looks like an ideal set up for a winter storm, but please keep in mind this is a forecast 9 days into the future.

The PNA (Pacific-North American Index) is Positive and sending energy into the Pacific Northwest.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is still Negative under the influence of a Strong Greenland Block. This will help move very cold air to the south.

On larger plots this looks like a piece of the Polar Vortex has broken off and will drop into southern Ontario, Canada. Then help to send the Arctic Air into the US.

A shortwave rounding the Deep Trough is what could provide the energy for a large coastal winter storm. My ‘?’ is simply of the location and timing. The overall pattern is highly supportive of something impressive developing.

Closer Look

The trough axis shows a negative tilt with a very deep digging of that short wave to coastal North Carolina. This is a prime location for baroclinic enhancement of a strong Low Pressure.

The Negative Tilt is an orientation of an upper level low that will pivot a Surface Storm North up the Coast.

The very cold air and location both support a large area of winter precipitation.

Surface Weather ‘Suggestion’ Next Friday Night

This is where we see that the ‘idea’ of a storm has two different translations. Please note this was generated earlier today and is looking 9 Days into the future!

The GFS Model shows a single concentrated Low off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile the European Model is faster with a double barrel system.  The Canadian Model doesn’t even have a storm, so I am not showing that for now.  Let’s explore:

GFS Model

A centralized Low Pressure with a 983 mb Low located off the North Carolina Coast. This shows snow beginning earlier in the day for our region and the storm passing to our south and farther off the coast.

European ECMWF Model

This model actually is faster/earlier with the snow. It has an initial Low at 994 mb passing in the same location as the GFS (above) a day earlier, followed by a second Low Friday morning as seen here. This phasing solution broadens the impact to a large area and expands the timing of the event over two days.

My Thoughts:

You will hear a lot of people talk about this over the next few days.  Many of us see the same models and it is easy to show the boldest images!

I still prefer the European long range over the GFS. Having two leaders does help for comparing.  I DO NOT and WILL NOT suggest snow amounts until we are within 3 days of the event. Even then, the first call is more for timing and general storm intensity.

7 Day Forecast (for Baltimore)

Let’s not get ahead of our skis and promise anything. The pattern supports ‘something’! It will impact a lot of people and true winter should be felt before Christmas.  That’s where we should start more than one week away. Why? Because this storm is barely a suggestion on my 7-Day Forecast yet.

Faith in the Flakes.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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