November 9 2022

Wednesday Morning Update 

Tropical Storm Nicole continues to get stronger as it travels westward. This morning winds were 70 mph and it is expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane as it crosses the Northern Bahamas. Landfall on Florida will be after midnight, then we will track it crossing the state and heading (our way) north.

The focus of this post will be on the expected hurricane landfall and then the impact for the Mid Atlantic.

Morning Surface Weather

Tropical Storm Nicole has 70 mph winds and is heading west towards Florida. High Pressure controls the Mid Atlantic (for now) and the next storm in the Northern Plains is the pattern change that has steering winds ahead of it. This is what will guide Nicole to turn north.

Tropical Storm Nicole Satellite Loop

4 AM EST Report

The National Hurricane Center expects a transition to full Tropical Storm today. 

LOCATION…26.6N 75.7W

• ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
• ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

Forecast Track Through Florida

See the warnings below

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas
• Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas
• Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
• Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
• North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
• Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
• Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

• South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

Storm Surge

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
• Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
• Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
• Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

Forecast Animation – ECMWF Model

7 PM WED to 10 AM Sat

I believe the European Model has the best handle on this.  Local look below…

Wider View Track For Nicole

Nicole will weaken to a Tropical Depression inland, with the Core Low tracking close to Baltimore. Closer look at the Mid Atlantic rainfall below.

Local Weather Today

Afternoon Temperatures 

It will be much cooler than yesterday 

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 9

Normal Low in Baltimore:  39ºF

Record 24ºF in 2019

SNOW: Trace in 2007

Normal High in Baltimore: 60ºF

Record 78ºF 1994

Average Temperatures Trending Cooler

Thursday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Warmer, but high clouds will begin to take over the sky ahead of Nicole.

Looking Ahead For Nicole

ECMWF Model 4 AM Fri to 10 AM Sat

This will be a quick mover. The heavy rain will fall on Friday, with perhaps a lull in the evening, then a final surge with the Core Low early Saturday.

The rest of Saturday will clear out and remain mild.

Rainfall Forecast 

This has lowered a little simply due to faster speed of the storm… getting out sooner.

We can still look for between 1 to 2 inches from central Maryland westward. Higher in some spots.

Less rain around the Bay, across Delmarva, to the beaches.

7 Day Forecast

Heavy rain Friday to early Saturday, then much colder air will follow.

This pattern may bring snow to western Maryland by Sunday and Monday. 

NEW: November Outlook Map From NOAA  Showed This For The First Time

The Big Cool Down Into Mid November: NOAA Outlook Does This For First Time

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now