November 26 Rain Ends Then Gusty Winds And Larger Thanksgiving Storm
November 26, 2024 Tuesday Morning Report There is a very busy weather week ahead for the holiday. We started off the week with a chilly morning and mild afternoon on…
Monday May 16 2022 A line of rain with some embedded storms already developed this morning. There have been some warnings issued in the mountains, and this initial round is a mountain event. Much more activity is expected and I hope this information will help you plan ahead.
I included my personal opinion in response to a concern with schools. Ultimately that call is up to those in charge of each location. Showers have develop well ahead of the main energy across southern Maryland, and even some pop up cells as we can see on the morning radar loop below.
Below is a look at the updated information on storm energy and radar simulation through this evening.
*UPDATE* Showers and some storms popping earlier than shown on short range models. I mentioned this a few times… Please just pay attention and cautious with your surroundings and plans traveling.
Severe Storm Risk
The Enhanced Risk is Level 3 of 5, a rare status for us, so lease take this seriously. Storms may contain damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornados. See the local look and radar simulation timeline below.
Severe Storm Risk: Potential For
- Damaging Winds Over 58 mph
- Hail OVER 1 inch diameter
- Isolated Tornadoes are very possible, but not for everyone. These are hit and mostly miss, but all it takes is one!
- Any storm can contain dangerous lighting.
- Cells may produce localized Flash Flooding as well.
As of 10 AM: For PA UNTIL 2 PM
This is From the National Weather Service Office in State College PA. Maryland is under the Sterling VA Office and considering a later time frame for the event.
I EXPECT THIS TO BE EXPANDED INTO MARYLAND AND EXTENDED LATER
Know Watch Vs Warning
Should an Alert be issued for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, or Flooding, please remember this: A WATCH means it ‘might’ happen. This is often issued first for a large area. A WARNING means it is ‘HAPPENING NOW’! This is shirt term with a county and towns listed in the path.
CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy
Anything between 1000 to 2500 J/Kg (Joules per Kilogram) means moderate instability.
Over 2500 J/Kg is strong instability and more suggestive of supercells with large hail and isolated tornadoes.
CAPE ANIMATION: 11 AM to 7 PM
Plotting the progress of the storm energy through the region to the Eastern Shore by evening. It should fade when crossing Delmarva this evening between Salisbury and Ocean City.
School Question Assuming The Worst Case Scenario
I have been asked by a few about sending kids home early. I will NOT make the call for ay school, but personally I believe this: Kids are safest in a school building made of brick, concrete, and steel along with trained adult staff. If there was an option to stay there late, or go home early and possibly be alone, I would lean towards keeping them in place if that is the option.
Radar Loop This Morning
8:30 AM to 10:30 AM Note: The PA storms are on the outer edge of the Sterling, VA Doppler Radar range. .. They were much more intense than shown here…
The showers across VA and Southern Maryland over performed from short range model plots. Basically there are more storms- earlier than models have suggested.
Radar Simulation Animation
11 AM to 7 PM (See the slider you control below) Reminder: This produce is good but NOT PERFECT! It missed some showers this morning, and may miss some coverage this afternoon. This is a guide, not gospel.
Again: More activity already than shown on this model projection. Be cautious for a very busy storm day.
Slider —> 11 AM to 7 PM
Compare To Radar Loop Past 2 Hours
This will auto-update
Showing Last 2 Radar map data
Last 2
My Next Update Will Include Any Expanded Watches
Weather posts straight to your inbox
Sign up and be the first to know!
Tropical Season Begins June 1
Related Posts
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
Instagram: justinweather
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
