Current Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 10/16/2021 01:00:03 am
Temperature

68°

Mostly Clear

63°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

84%

Feels Like

68°

Wind (SE)

3mph

Air Pressure

29.85

Sun
Sun Rise

07:17 AM

Sun Set

06:26 PM

Day Length

11:09 Hours

Difference

2 min 27 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

05:01 PM

Moon Set

03:00 AM

Next: Full Moon

Oct 20,2021

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

45°

67°

Average High
Record Low

30°


(1876)

90°


(1897)
Record High
Current Conditions

What To Expect From Ida On Wednesday

Forecast
Warnings

Tuesday Afternoon August 31

What we are calling Ida is no longer a tropical system and not being tracked by The National Hurricane Center. However, it was once a high end Category 4 Hurricane and there is still some potent energy left with that storm.

Below is a live radar plus an update on the tracking and rain forecasts.  But first some highlights. 


Surface Weather

“Smells like the Gulf” – This storm has such strong circulation, that particulates are still flying about.  Often with a system like this, you may notice smells from plants, salt, and even the southern shore that is familiar to the Gulf Coast region.

 

Live Radar

 

 

Highlights

  • The impact on our region we not be the same all around.  The core Low is expected to pass close to Baltimore. The heaviest rain will be to the north, and there may be a sharp line of rain much of the day, keeping areas south and east dry.
  • The ‘worst’ weather is expected between 6 PM, until the Low passes after midnight. 
  • Winds will increase during the afternoon and evening as the core Low approaches. Steady winds may be 20 to 30 mph, with frequent gusts over 40 mph.
  • Outdoor activities and after school sports will most likely be cancelled.

 

Flooding: 

  • The heaviest rain will be in northern Maryland to central Pennsylvania.  Here it is possible to get 4 to 6 inches throughout the event.
  • Central Maryland can easily get over 2 inches, much may occur in strong or severe storms during the evening and at night. 
  • Flood Warnings have been issued for local rivers already.
  • Compare new rainfall maps below.

 

Severe Storms

  • Individual cells within the main rain band could dump rates over 1 inch per hour.  
  • A ‘Watch’ may be issued for the region in the afternoon and at night. 
  • Severe T’storms = wind gusts could reach 60 mph +
  • Tornado = tropical twisters will be possible. They are often short lived and rain wrapped. These ‘spin ups’ are usually EF-0 and EF-1 rated.

 



 

Plotting The Rain

It is likely our region will be split with steady and heavy rain much of the day north and west all day. 

But a sharp line may separate where just showers or many dry hours… That area will get the strong to severe storms late afternoon and evening. 

 

ECMWF Model

The arrow shows the direction of the rain movement, not the track of the Low.

 

GFS Model

The arrow shows the direction of the rain movement, not the track of the Low.

 

NAM 3 Km

The arrow shows the direction of the rain movement, not the track of the Low.

 

Animation

Here is the NAM 3 Km model. I still believe this product is not performing well, but this helps illustrate the sharp cut off of steady, heavy rain. The areas that miss the rain during the day, will get a surge of storms by evening.

I think the cut off will be south and east of what is shown here…

august-31-rain-ida-wedensday-nam

 

Rainfall: 

That is where it differs, but still all high enough for flooding.

The heaviest rain will be along and north of the track of the core Low.

 

ECMWF Model

GFS Model

For some reason here we see a lull in the I-95 corridor. This is not consistent with prior runs or compared to other models. I would still plan for a ‘minimum’ of 1 to 2 inches across the board.

NAM 3 Km

 



 

INTERACTIVE WEATHER PAGES

14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)

We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
Central Maryland

Baltimore

Annapolis

Bel Air

Carroll County/Westminster

Delmarva

Easton

Salisbury

Ocean City

Dover DE

Southern Maryland

Patuxent River 

Washington DC

 

Pennsylvania

York

 

 

Maryland Trek Gear

Maryland_trek_Gear

 

Maryland Trek 8 Says THANK YOU!

Running Total Raised $116,438

During 329 Miles From Wisp To Ocean City

To Honor Kids In Cancer Treatment and Support FREE Programs At Just In Power Kids

 

MDTrek8 Logo web

 

 

National Weather Service Adds Maryland Cecil And Garrett Counties



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