Monday July 22 2019

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has finally been issued for most of our region until 10 PM. I say finally because storms have been popping for the last hour. However the first wave moving through Carroll and Baltimore Counties in Maryland has been ahead of the short range modeling. You can compare the Doppler Radar to the modeling below.

In short, this means the atmosphere is more active and storms are likely to be more numerous than shown in the modeling below.  Please look and compare to simulation sliders. These are just a suggestion how the storms may behave through the evening.

Alerts:

A Watch means is MAY happen

A Warning means it IS HAPPENING NOW

As mentioned this morning in my last report:

• We have a slight to moderate risk for severe storms.
• We have a moderate risk of excessive rain = Flash Flood Watch
• Storms may contain: Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lighting, damaging winds, and possibly hail. The tornado risk is less than 5%, but possible.

Doppler Radar at 2:30 PM

The severe storm cell between Westminster and Manchester/Hampstead was not seen on the short range models. The other cell west of Frederick was and will be the next wave into metro areas.

HRRR Model Radar Simulation —> slider

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NAM  3Km Model Radar Simulation —> slider

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