November 29, 2024
Friday Morning Report
A truly identifiable winter pattern has been established and will reinforce itself. The next push of colder air will arrive with flurries or snow showers inland and rain showers near and south of Baltimore. This sets us up with cold winds into the weekend.
Lake Effect heavier bands between Cleveland, Erie, and Buffalo will be a big weather story through the weekend. An added bonus for football fans as there may be snow continuing for the Bills’ home game on Sunday.
In the week ahead, the trend will be for another shot of cold air every few days. This will keep the winter feel in place and bring in the chance for more snow showers.
No larger storms are in sight, but the next two weeks could still bring us something worthwhile.
Cold winds dominate, and the leading edge of the next push is passing through the Great Lakes through Chicago.
Snow showers in our local mountains will get a boost, with a total accumulation of up to 2 inches.
Much more east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Just for fun, I want to show you the National Weather Service forecast for New York State, which will last all weekend.
The heaviest snow bands will be south of Buffalo, east of Lake Erie. This city is expecting around 8 inches, over 1 Foot, around Orchard Park, home of the Bills. The town of Dunkirk may be in the 40-inch range!!!
East of Lake Ontario, the heaviest snow will be North of Syracuse.. near Watertown, and in the Tug Hill Plateau. Towns like Montague may reach close to 60 inches of snow by Sunday night.
Winds will increase this afternoon and evening. This is the surge of colder air on the way.
With the leading edge of colder air, snow showers may reach the suburbs midday, followed by rain showers near and south of Baltimore in the afternoon.
More persistent snow bands in the mountains may bring up to 2 inches of accumulation.
Sunrise at 7:06 AM
Sunset at 4:45 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 33ºF
Record 13ºF in 1955
Normal High in Baltimore: 52ºF
Record 74ºF 1927
Rainfall Total:” 0.61” Thursday Morning
6.45 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since September 1st
6.91 inches BELOW AVERAGE rainfall since January 1st
Colder Winds!
I am focusing on the jet stream because the surface reflections are less reliable with cold patterns and light moisture.
This shows the spin around 18,000 feet above the ground. I use this to justify keeping a chance for flurries or snow showers in our forecast into the weekend.
There will be a more pronounced wave with a clipper that may reach us by Tuesday evening. This may bring snow showers east of the mountains.
This clipper will be the leading edge of the next push of colder air, part of a continued pattern that will bring in even more cold air.
A colder push of air and likely with snow showers on the way.
This looks like winter, and this is the most sustained cold pattern we have seen this early in the season in years!
The weekend surge of cold will come with gusty winds; the next push will bring in the clipper with snow showers on Tuesday.
A brief warm-up on Thursday will be followed by the next Arctic push by the end of next week.
Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring
Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
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