Monday November 7 2022

As of the 5 AM report, the National Hurricane Center has officially named Nicole a subtropical storm. This is the same wind intensity as a tropical storm, this one measured at 45 mph winds.  The difference is the structure which is a hybrid with cold core elements. 

Nicole is forecast to intensify and might reach hurricane intensity when reaching the east coast of Florida by Wednesday or Thursday. It will be a large storm, with a large impact as it turns north up the east coast. Eventually spreading heavy rain into the Mid Atlantic by Friday. 

Conditions at 5 AM EST

From the National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

• LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
• ABOUT 555 MI… E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH...75 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

Satellite Loop

Forecast Track/Cone

Latest projection from the National Hurricane Center using a blend of models. There is a one of uncertainty that allows for adjustment farther out in time as this interacts with the coast and other weather systems.

Tropical Storm Wind Arrival Time

Wednesday Evening is the expectation for much of Florida.

Model Forecast (GFS)

(From Tropical Tidbits)

This shows the storms taking a WIDE TURN by crossing into the Gulf of Mexico and then north up to the Mid Atlantic coast, exiting North Carolina on Saturday.

I expect there will be some adjustments…

Computer Model Forecasts

Intensity – 

There is some support for this to become a hurricane before landfall.

Longer Range Track

Yes, this will turn north somewhere across Florida, then into the Mid Atlantic.  It may exit out to the Atlantic from North Carolina…. But heavy rain will expand farther north. 

Rain Forecast in the Mid Atlantic ECMWF Model

For contrast, here is the European Model

Friday Morning to Saturday Evening

Rainfall Potential

With a large area expecting over 2 inches, there could be some regional flooding.

Please check back for more updates and a focus on the impact for us here in the Mid Atlantic. I will have more details on the expected rain arrival time in my next report.

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