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Updated Radar Simulation For Rain And Storms Sunday Afternoon And Night
NOAA
Severe Weather
Forecast
May 1 2022
Late Sunday Morning Update
In my morning report I showed a comparison of two short range high resolution model simulations. They both showed rain this afternoon, but a split between temps and storm potential.
It is looking more likely we get into the activity for rain and storms across much of the area today, and I am discussing with my fellow coaches about the impact on our kids’ baseball game. I hope this simulation helps you prepare for your plans as well.
Let’s take a look at the rain expansion on the radar and how both models ran from there…
10 AM Doppler Radar Snapshot
Here we see a solid cluster of rain and heavier cells around Cumberland in western MD… approaching Hagerstown, Martinsburg, and Winchester.
Compare Simulations NAM 3 Km Vs HRRR
NAM 3Km 10 AM to Midnight
The NAM 3 Km is sparse with the rain. The initial wave passing mainly north of Baltimore mid day and early afternoon. Then some showers tonight.
HRRR Model 10 AM to 8 PM
This has the initial ran band through northern Maryland clipping Baltimore, and southern PA.
Then followed by a developing line of strong storms to reach most central/metro areas between 4 PM and 6 PM, then on to the Eastern Shore….
HRRR Model —- slider
Here is the hourly breakdown for what may turn out to be the more active solution.
Notice the Metro area timeline, then later on Delmarva…
Another cluster of storms forms this evening in the mountains to reach metro areas tonight before midnight.
Updating Radar Loop
Showing Last 2 map data
Last 2
NOAA Severe Storm Risk
Temperature Animation
Showing LAST 12 HOURS Regional map data
LAST 12 HOURS
Model Comparison
Reminder that the Nam 3 Km Model is cooler, cutting down on the storm risk.
The HRRR Model brings Baltimore near 70ºF, which would feed into that model’s expanded storm line.
So the actual temps may help you determine which model is performing better without even needed to check back here.
NAM 3 Km Model Forecast
HRRR Model Forecast
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7 Day Forecast
As we enter the month of May, we are still dealing a cooler weather. The next storm is likely to keep temps below average with rain at the end of the week and into next weekend.
Tropical Season Begins June 1
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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
