August 1 Weather Update On The Expected Rain

Sunday August 1 2021

Mostly likely you will wake up with wet ground this morning. There is mixed news in this update, and it does depend on your perspective. So one size does not fit all. Please keep that in mind.

As of 7 AM: We had some rain already roll through. Steady rain is still falling south, pockets of heady rain along the Rt 50 corridor between Washington, Annapolis, and crossing the Bay.  Meanwhile, the north end of Maryland it is already breaking up.

Once again the short range modeling did not perform well (and I led with it).

I know many welcome rain, while others have outdoor events.  One mom wrote me yesterday asking about her son’s morning pool party.  I had expected rain and upper 60s and didn’t think it would be optimal. Instead, that location will have spotty showers and closer to 70ºF.

We have an outdoor event for Just In Power Kids, and personally I have been hoping the rain would not verify. While it looks better at our location, we still need to plan for more rain, and you may want to as well.

The expectation: Today will bring more rain and some thunderstorms, but plotting them will be tough.

Morning Surface Weather

The cluster of rain we expected kept speeding up, and tracked a little south.  It has still mainly hit southern Maryland, but did allow the north part of rain to erode away to showers in metro areas.

While it looks dry to our west, more showers and storms will develop and track our way this afternoon.

Weather Tracking Page

Click to see: Temperatures, Radar, and Satellite

Most Likely Weather:

North in PA:

More sun will get through, then afternoon storms. But it will be warmer.

Southern Maryland:

More rain is likely.

In Between (Central MD/Metro Areas):

Where the bulk of the population is, the set up will be a little bit of everything. Spotty showers, breaks of sun, and late day storms. There is still a chance to get 1 inch of rain, depending on where the showers set up.

Sunday Rain Simulation

I switched to a different computer model for guidance today.

PLEASE NOTE: The HRRR is also NOT PERFECT! But this does show the development of more showers and storms.

I annotated the direction I expect them to move.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY August 1

Normal Low in Baltimore:  67ºF

Record 57ºF in 1895

Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF

Record 100º F 2006

Temperature Forecast 

Comparing Noon Between NAM and GFS Models

The NAM Model is the one I showed yesterday with more rain. It has our temps remaining a little cooler.

I am opting for the milder GFS view, which is still much cooler than an average start to August.

NAM 3 KM

GFS

7 Day Forecast