Saturday July 17 2021
Storm erupted early this afternoon. As suggested earlier, the short range models have under represented the reality of what has developed for us.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is still in place for most of our region through 11 PM. The first round is not going to be the last. So as we look at the updated short range model simulation below, I added the live radar and lightning to compare.
A Watch means that it ‘might’ happen.
A Warning will be issued when it is ‘happening now’ and usually county or town specific. There will be multiple warnings issued through the rest of the day.
Dangerous Lightning can strike even when not under a severe ‘warning’.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Flash Flood Watch
Surface Weather
We are not even close to the cold front crossing the region. So we will have a full afternoon and evening of more active to deal with.
Dangerous Lightning
Great snap of the bolt.
Dangerous lightning can strike event when not under a severe thunderstorm warning. https://t.co/tv8Ly2SFZb— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) July 17, 2021
Radar Loop 12:30 PM to 3 PM
It didn’t take long for multiple lines of storms to develop.
Radar Snapshot
Compare this image at 3 PM with the short range model below.
Note: Storms have been slow moving. Some places in Baltimore and Harford Counties got hit very hard, while nearby may have heard thunder but missed out… this time.
Radar Simulation
This is the NAM 3 Km model. This first image was the forecast for the same time slot as the radar snapshot above.
As you can see, the forecast was under represented. So the increased activity this evening may still be be underplayed here.
Please compare this forecast to the live radar widget below.
Live Radar and Lightning
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