February 8 2025
Saturday Morning Report
This weather event today is arriving earlier and tapping into colder air. This has produced snow sooner in Southern Maryland at daybreak and may help to lock in the cold air longer.
This snow may push up to 1 inch and then change to sleet and freezing rain.
I have had to adjust my best guess for the impact. This includes where the ground is warmer and the timing with daylight. IMPORTANT: This forecast is NOT perfect! It is a guide because conditions on the pavement may change from one side of town to another and then cross to other towns. Please be very alert for any changes.
The biggest impact will be during the afternoon through tonight near and north of Baltimore, as the weather advances from the south.
This will end overnight with a thaw Sunday and plenty of time to dry out and head to Super Bowl Parties.
The next system looks to be snow on Tuesday and could end up being an all-day event… Then, the likelihood of more systems will continue, but the timing and track get fuzzy. Just plan for an active two weeks or more ahead.
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -1.77
So we are down -9.77″ including last year!
Sunrise at 7:06 AM
Sunset at 5:36 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -1ºF in 1967
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 72ºF 2017
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
This is part of the challenge. It is snowing in places that are above freezing. Temps should chill a little, but daylight AND warm roads may battle stickage. Farther north, the cold should hold and lock in longer.
The snow and sleet have arrived early in Southern Maryland. However, the temperatures shown above are above freezing. This will be a challenge. The pavement there is warm, and the temperatures may still drop a few degrees. So, a few hours this morning may be worth watching for icy spots, but mid-day roads should be wet.
Further north, the snow and sleet will reach Washington and Annapolis before 10 AM and pass metro Baltimore before noon—just an hour or two earlier than I expected last night.
This system is developing and moving in a little faster than expected. This may lock in the cold air for more places resulting in a sooner impact on the roads.
I looked at a bunch of models and used my best guess at which is handling each type of precipitation better. Some are overdoing the snow and freezing rain. Here are my picks at which is doing the best and should end up closest to what we actually see.
7 AM Tue to 7 AM Thu
The European Model here shows the active pattern that may blend one storm into the next.
Here we see the burst of snow on Tuesday, a light icy mix on Wednesday, and then a mix to rain on Thursday.
The ECMWF highlights the burst of moderate snow to include Central AND Southern Maryland.
This first call for snow totals: My suggestion is for over 3 inches near and south of Baltimore, less to the north. That is to help with the idea that there will be enough to shovel or plow.
The trend shifted a little south in the last run, but I am watching for a possible bump back north that could affect where the bulk of this may fall.
After today, we thaw.
The next event will be more snow on Tuesday.
Midweek is questionable as the active pattern will be spreading a few systems our way, and the arctic air will be measuring… possibly lifting north to end with rain.
There is more in the pipeline.
Click on the maps for that full report.
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