Winter Weather Advisory Expanded And My Call For Ice Saturday

Friday Night Update February 72025

Our next ice event has already had the Winter Weather Advisory expanded to more of Maryland. This may look similar to the Thursday morning event with the impact areas and event the totals.  The timing will be different and it resents more challenges.

Saturday may bring light snow or sleet mid day as this arrives, then turn to more sleet and eventually freezing rain through the day and evening.

My concern will be later in the day for most areas. The mid day hours may hell most areas have wet roads, but as the sun angle gets low through the evening the road temps will cool enough for more icing.  So instead of the past overnight event, this may catch you during the travels.

The good news is that we may stay above freezing in most areas to allow for a thaw into Sunday morning.

I will show my map of suggestions followed by the forecast details. Then the next storm will be colder and allow for more snow Tuesday afternoon.

Winter Weather Alerts

Winter Weather Advisory now covers most of the same areas that were affected on Thursday morning. The start time is based off of the arrival mid morning in Maryland and early afternoon in Southern Pennsylvania.

Ice Storm Warning AGAIN for the high mountains. This also affects the ski areas of Wisp and Seven Springs.

Note: These are issued by The National Weather Service local offices for each region.

Friday Night Set Up

We have another Cold Air ‘wedge’ or Damming situation. This is building south now, while a band of precipitation if developing across Kentucky. This may not look like an organized storm yet, but neither did the last event. This is forming the same way and will take shape on Saturday.

Radar Simulation 7 AM to Midnight

NAM 3Km

Highlights of this below.

Watch as the light snow and sleet expand to freezing rain during the day and evening. This should mostly end close to midnight.

My Call For Ice Impact

The impact on roads may be limited during the day, expected for farther inland.

The icing on roads will gradually become an issued between 3 PM and 6 PM into the evening hours.

Please allow me a 1 to 2 hour buffer on that timing.

Snapshot Highlights

Radar Simulation and Temperatures

Noon

This may begin with brief snow around lunchtime. Then go to sleet for much of central areas…

Temperatures

The cold air wedge or dam will be banked up inland west of I-95 initially.

4 PM

As the sleet and freezing rain gets established, temps will cool just below freezing in more areas… to fulfill the Advisory.

Roads may begin to get more slick as the sun gets lower in the sky and then after sunset. This will expand across central Maryland between 4 PM and 6 PM.

7 PM

Midnight

Sunday Morning Temperatures

Warmer air should flow in behind the storm. This should help with a thaw for Sunday morning.

Winter Precipitation POTENTIAL Forecasts

At this point, I see the NAM 3 Km Model having the best solution with the combination of sleet and freezing rain. I am comparing them with the GFS and ECMWF Models for upper limit reference. Also to highlight that those latter model may be overdoing the precipitation totals which may be important with the snow interpretation next Tuesday.

NAM 3Km Sleet

NAM 3Km Freezing Rain

GFS Freezing Rain

ECMWF Freezing Rain

Repeating My Call For Ice Impact

Tuesday Snow To Thursday Mix

Forecast Animation ECMWF Model

7 AM Tue to 7 AM Thu

The European Model here shows the active pattern that may blend one storm to the next.

Here we see the burst of snow Tuesday, light icy mix Wednesday, then mix to rain on Thursday.

Model Comparison:  Afternoon at  4 PM

This shows both the ECMWF and GFS Model highlighting the burst of moderate snow to include Central AND Southern Maryland.

It is TOO EARLY to show any snow totals other than my suggestion for OVER 3 inches. That is to help with the idea that there will be enough to shovel or plow.

Computer models have a wide range and I have already seen large totals on one model cut in half since yesterday.

Predicting snow beyond 3 days is guesswork and often subject to going too high.  I will start to show snow total potential this weekend.

Active Storm Pattern Locked In The Jet Stream

7 Day Forecast

Next ice event on Saturday

Next snow chance on Tuesday…

A few more storms are possible over the next few weeks.

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