November 5, 2024
Election Day Tuesday Morning Report
It’s still dry, but there are areas of fog and low clouds around the Chesapeake Bay and to the south. Today will be very warm, and tomorrow will be even warmer, near a record.
We will shift our focus to the new Tropical Storm Rafael. It is located near Jamaica this morning and is plotted to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Computer models are split almost like the US electorate. One brings us much-needed rain by Sunday, while the other keeps us dry. Let’s take a look in this report.
Winds are up to 60mph as it moves near Jamaica, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in place. Forecast brings Rafael to hurricane strength before passing over western Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds reach 105 miles from the center.
This is very important! Notice the collection pushing the storm near and inland around New Orleans. That would support the GFS Model below bringing rain into the Eastern US this weekend.
This keeps the storm center south of New Orleans. I would not argue with the NHC, but it is hard to ignore the potential for this to track north and inland.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
Dense Fog may be more widespread across the lower Chesapeake Bay, but there are pockets of fog and low clouds across central Maryland to start the day….
It is more clear to the north in Southern PA.
Today will be very warm thanks to the increasing winds from the South ahead of a very strong cold front.
Election Day is already stormy from Houston to St. Louis and northward to Chicago.
These numbers are close to 15 degrees ABOVE NORMAL!
Sunrise at 6:39 AM
Sunset at 5:01 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 39ºF
Record 24ºF in 1998
Normal High in Baltimore: 61ºF
Record 83ºF 1961
Warmest Day Of The Week
Record High in Baltimore = 80ºF in 2015
There is a VERY BIG DIFFERENCE between the American GFS Model and the European ECWMF Model. It all depends on what happens with TS Rafael.
I do need to note that the GFS has had the edge with tropical systems in recent months.
This solution has a small chance for showers on Thursday with the cold front but a solid surge of rain from Rafael. If this happens, it will not be tropical at that point, just much-needed rain into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
Showers from the cold front dissipate.
Much-needed rain from the remnants of Rafael.
This solution has a better chance for rain Thursday, but nothing from Rafael… keeping that track in the Gulf towards Texas.
More showers with the cold front.
No rain, as this solution keeps Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico and NOT making landfall.
After these warm days, the big question is if Rafael can bring us rain on Sunday. I am leaning towards the GFS model since it is similar to the majority of computer model guidance…
The result would bring us needed rain by Sunday morning.
Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.
Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.
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