Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 12/06/2024 11:30:03 am
Temperature

36°

Mostly Cloudy

16°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

44%

Feels Like

26°

Wind (WNW)

16mph

Air Pressure

30.22

Sun
Sun Rise

07:12 AM

Sun Set

04:43 PM

Day Length

09:31 Hours

Difference

0 min 56 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

11:41 AM

Moon Set

10:05 PM

Next: First Quarter

Dec 08,2024

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

Climate
Average Low

31°

48°

Average High
Record Low

13°


(2002)

77°


(1998)
Record High
Conditions

November 5 Warm Election Day And Tropical Storm Rafael May Bring Needed Rain

Maryland Weather
climate data
National Hurricane Center
Forecast
Tropics

November 5, 2024

Election Day Tuesday Morning Report

It’s still dry, but there are areas of fog and low clouds around the Chesapeake Bay and to the south. Today will be very warm, and tomorrow will be even warmer, near a record.

We will shift our focus to the new Tropical Storm Rafael. It is located near Jamaica this morning and is plotted to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Computer models are split almost like the US electorate. One brings us much-needed rain by Sunday, while the other keeps us dry. Let’s take a look in this report.

Tropical Storm Rafael

Winds are up to 60mph as it moves near Jamaica, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in place. Forecast brings Rafael to hurricane strength before passing over western Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds reach 105 miles from the center.

November 5 Tropical Storm Raphael Satellite

National Hurricane Center Update at 4 AM EST

  • LOCATION…17.0N 78.0W
  • ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
  • ABOUT 265 MI…425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

 

Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Spread

This is very important! Notice the collection pushing the storm near and inland around New Orleans. That would support the GFS Model below bringing rain into the Eastern US this weekend.

November 5 Tropical Storm Raphael Forecast Tracks Models

 

National Hurricane Center

This keeps the storm center south of New Orleans. I would not argue with the NHC, but it is hard to ignore the potential for this to track north and inland.

November 5 Tropical Storm Raphael Forecast Tracks National Hurricane Center

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Cayman Islands

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Jamaica

* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge

* Dry Tortugas

 

LOCAL WEATHER

Baltimore Drought Update

  • No Measurable Rain Since October 2nd = 34 Days!
  • There was a ‘trace’ on October 4th and November 1st.
  • Rainfall DOWN -6.44” since Sep 1

Morning Surface Weather

Dense Fog may be more widespread across the lower Chesapeake Bay, but there are pockets of fog and low clouds across central Maryland to start the day….

It is more clear to the north in Southern PA.

Today will be very warm thanks to the increasing winds from the South ahead of a very strong cold front.

Election Day is already stormy from Houston to St. Louis and northward to Chicago.

November 5 weather Election Day Tuesday

 

 

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

These numbers are close to 15 degrees ABOVE NORMAL!

November 5 election day temperature afternoon

 

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 5

Sunrise at 6:39 AM

Sunset at 5:01 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  39ºF

Record 24ºF in 1998

Normal High in Baltimore: 61ºF

Record 83ºF 1961

 

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 6

Warmest Day Of The Week

Morning Lows

November 5 weather temperatures Wednesday morning

 

Afternoon Highs

Record High in Baltimore = 80ºF in 2015

November 5 weather temperatures Wednesday afternoon

 

Forecast Animations: Friday to Sunday

There is a VERY BIG DIFFERENCE between the American GFS Model and the European ECWMF Model. It all depends on what happens with TS Rafael.

I do need to note that the GFS has had the edge with tropical systems in recent months.

GFS Model Forecast

This solution has a small chance for showers on Thursday with the cold front but a solid surge of rain from Rafael. If this happens, it will not be tropical at that point, just much-needed rain into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

November 5 weather forecast GFS

 

Thursday Morning

Showers from the cold front dissipate.

November 5 weather forecast GFS Thursday

 

Sunday Morning

Much-needed rain from the remnants of Rafael.

November 5 weather forecast GFS Sunday

 

ECMWF Model Forecast

This solution has a better chance for rain Thursday, but nothing from Rafael… keeping that track in the Gulf towards Texas.

November 5 weather forecast ECMWF

Thursday Morning

More showers with the cold front.

November 5 weather forecast ECMWF Thursday

 

Sunday Morning

No rain, as this solution keeps Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico and NOT making landfall.

November 5 weather forecast ECMWF Sunday

 

7 Day Forecast

After these warm days, the big question is if Rafael can bring us rain on Sunday. I am leaning towards the GFS model since it is similar to the majority of computer model guidance…

The result would bring us needed rain by Sunday morning.

November 5 weather forecast 7 day Tuesday

 

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FIRST FROST DATES

Here are the average dates across Maryland, and they match the advisories we saw last week.

Click this image to see more details across Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Forst Frost Maryland

 

FOUR SUPERMOONS OF 2024

Click here for more

October 17 2024 Supermoon Hunters Moon

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

 

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter Weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November To March

Click to see more and send a request for your school.

School Weather Assemblies Storm Smart FITF

 

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

 

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF